Can NC State football exploit Clemson's defense?

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Visit us at capitalfinancialusa.com. This is the Adam Gold Show. You're a Steelers fan, right, Dennis Cox? That I am. How do you feel about your head coach? I love Mike Tomlin. You are a smart man. What's not to love about Mike Tomlin?

You are a smart man. I'm sorry, where else would he go? Like Matt Ruhl. Yes, and I believe the Rooney's are also smart about their head coach. There will be a time where Mike Tomlin will simply have had enough of where he is or doing what he's doing.

Sure. And maybe he'll need some time away. But if I were a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I would not be looking forward to that time.

No. Well, we have a head coach in waiting. Brian Flores is on staff. So there you go. That is true.

That is true. Maybe Brian can fix that offense, but I don't think so. I don't think that offense is fixable. In many ways, we thought that Clemson didn't have a fixable offense.

Or maybe NC State. I don't know. Chip Patterson time. It's Wednesday. Here's my man. Cover three podcast moderator, cbssports.com. How are you, sir?

I'm doing great. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Last week, it looked like you were wearing a tie. So listen, man, you're telling me, tell me the sport jacket that you are wearing. By the way, if you're watching on TV, Chip is wearing a sport jacket.

Are you just trolling me at this point? No, we've we've seen the production schedule shift around at CBS Sports HQ. And so basically now I go either straight from spending this joyous time together with you every single Wednesday into a CBS Sports HQ preview of the SEC on CBS Game of the Week.

Or because Hurricane Ian is currently creating tornado warnings throughout the greater Waterdale area. We did need to tape before conversation. So I just got done breaking down every single aspect of the SEC on CBS Game of the Week between Alabama and Arkansas. But no, I understand that based on your lead in, you would like to discuss the Clemson Tigers.

So we are going to do that. In my opinion, it's the biggest game that State has. I mean, Clemson's played big games routinely, especially over the last eight or nine years. NC State has not. And a friend of mine did point out that State did have a game at Wake last year where the Atlantic Division was on the line and Wake ended up winning that game, although there were still some games to be played after that. Let's just dive right in. I mean, this is this is a I mean, the biggest opportunity for Dave Doran ever at NC State, maybe ever, maybe ever as a head coach.

What happens at Northern Illinois? I'm not not knocking it, but at a different level. Tell me, give me your thoughts on State at Clemson on national TV in primetime that it stinks that it's going to be a rain soaked game, right? Right.

You know, in those things for more, more. It stinks for NC State more. Yeah. It stinks for NC State more because Clemson has a quarterback who is the size of a linebacker, and that if it comes down to who's going to be able to be the bigger body running with the football. I think that Clemson's got a much better runner of a quarterback. I think Clemson's got a deeper running back room. And while NC State is great at the line of scrimmage, especially defensively, especially on the interior of that defensive line. If it comes down to DJ, we younger lays big body against safety or an outside linebacker DJ is going to win that battle.

And if this is so if this is the same kind of, you know, slot fest where you're just going to water is going to be flying everywhere. You're gonna be running the ball a lot, then I think that that favors the Clemson Tigers, and I almost wondered, I was like, does it count as NC State stuff that the biggest game of the modern era is being played under these ridiculous conditions. And that if we did have a crisp early, you know, October 1, no early October night in Death Valley, where maybe you could get those butts tight with a couple of quick touchdowns and, and maybe the defense forces a turnover to do you could get that negative feel disadvantage. But I think that, you know, with the storm in place with the rain that they're calling for, it is is going to turn down is going to turn into a game that unfortunately for NC State, I think Clemson is very prepared to play with a lot of running the football and actually limiting DJ Uwe Yunga Lay's ability to sling the ball through the air.

Here's the thing about it. Having watched Clemson now for the last couple of weeks, I actually think they're passing offense is ahead of their running offense. And I don't think DJ U is that good of a runner. He's so big he is he's enormous, but he's smaller than he than he used to be.

So I got an I don't know what that means. But the my biggest fear is that NC State couldn't get the yard they needed at East Carolina. Oh, yeah, week one, but it's just going to be that much more difficult to do that against against Clemson. But man Wake Forest had a lot of success late. I know there were some negative plays that hurt them, but they had a lot of success late running Ellison inside. Although states offense is obviously very different.

Yeah, and there's a, you know, our friend Connor O'Neill did a good job of breaking this down and his own review of the game. But, you know, it was a the Wake Forest offense does a lot of take with the defense gives you Clemson because of the injury issues in the secondary was not prepared to go man to man against Wake Forest wide receivers, a stunning, stunning turn of circumstances that if you go back 20 years ago and say hey, guess what Wake Forest wide receivers are winning one on one battles against Clemson's defensive backs Clemson can't stop it. It speaks to what they've done in terms of the development at that position within this offense, but that was what happened is Clemson said okay, we can't guard you one on one. We're going to have to play zone.

We're going to have to go behind this thing. Therefore that meant that there were less bodies in the box and Wake Forest because the offense operates in a way that takes with the defense gives you says, okay, now we're going to run it and you are right. They did have some success far more success than we would have ever expected based on our analysis of the game going into it, but it wasn't enough success and on the full yards per play basis throughout that second half. I think the entire body of work builds out such that it was anywhere as productive as Sam Hartman throwing the ball into those one-on-one matchups where whether it was Jamal Banks, whether it was Donovan Green, whether it was AT Perry, Wake was winning those matchups and even getting the pass interference calls to keep drives alive. I mean, it's it was an interesting spot and I do want to circle back to your comment about the passing game because what has happened is that Bo Collins has really emerged now fully healthy as the best outside target that DJ Uyengar Lele has been missing. Joseph Negada is still a physical freak, but the secret sauce is the tight end Davis Allen and keeping him from being able to catch 50-50 balls in third down in red zone situations is going to be a problem.

He ain't Brock Bowers the Georgia tight end who is absolutely phenomenal but is that same style of tight end where I just think that the physical size and the athleticism provides such an opportunity where DJ doesn't even have to be perfectly accurate because of how Allen's going to be able to go up and get the ball and or prevent a defensive back from getting it. All right, I'm going to use last week as a reference point for this week. It looked to me like and I'm not sure that I'm giving either Notre Dame enough credit or to my I don't even it looked to me like North Carolina is ill-equipped to play in those types of football games. Like I just call it big boy football that when it's normal football when you're playing normal teams in the ACC North Carolina is better and more dangerous like it doesn't show up negatively when you play a good team like app when you play at Georgia State.

Oh, man. We Carolina's got better players, but when Notre Dame showed up they they're Carolina's defensive line looks like the same size as Notre Dame's running back. What are the chances that state has a similar problem at Clemson? I don't I don't think that'll be the case because of NC State's performance in a win against Clemson last season. I think that in terms of your confidence, there's so much there's so many veterans on this NC State roster.

There's so much continuity from last year's staff. I think that that win should eliminate that kind of situation and that kind of impact here. Can I circle back to something on North Carolina Notre Dame?

That's sort of hilarious to me. Yeah, that game was so much more lopsided than the final score way more Notre Dame crushed, North Carolina, and I finally found something that is able to exhibit that are you familiar with success rate? I'm not too nerdy here, but I think fine go as nerdy as you like you weren't a you weren't a sport coach trying out loud success rate takes all of football and it boils it down to the simple idea that every single down is going to be either a success or a failure right and that on first down success is getting five yards or more on second down success is getting four yards or more on third down success is getting a first down the defense of course being stopping your opponent from being successful. Then there is a formula that takes a game and says what is the net success rate between these two teams.

I'm about to be frightened here. So the net success rate for Notre Dame in its win over North Carolina was only slightly less dominant than NC State's win over Yukon in slightly more dominant than Alabama's win over Vanderbilt. So let me reiterate this in plain layman speak.

If you look at every single down individually and stack them up on top of each other. The success that Notre Dame had against North Carolina was on par with NC State thumping Yukon and Alabama thumping Vanderbilt. They did not look like they played in the same division. That's what I chose last touchdowns are just window dressing to make everybody feel better about that was and that was my takeaway from the game and it was disappointing because when Mac Brown came into the press conference and talked about well Notre Dame's got all these top 10 classes in not really last couple. Yes, the ones previous no and actually the recruiting for North Carolina and Notre Dame over the last four recruiting classes pretty close. In fact, North Carolina had a better recruiting class.

I just used 22 24 7 sports for for my ranking who cares. I mean the rankings are a little bit different, but they're basically all the same but the recruiting isn't the problem. I don't think unless it unless we're talking about recruiting certain position groups Carolina hasn't done well, which is probably the case to me. It's about developing Carolina just hasn't gotten the most out of their best players except guys like quarterback and wide receiver running back. Yeah, if if Drake may goes through his North Carolina career and the Tar Heels don't make a run at an ACC championship. It is a colossal failure by everyone around him because the opportunity to make a run at a championship at a program that doesn't compete for championships regularly happens when you have a generational talent at quarterback. That is how Clemson leveled up twice with the Sean Watson and Trevor Lawrence and I'm not even saying national championship. I'm just saying an ACC championship something that North Carolina has not had around in a long time. And I think that Drake may is that kind of talent when you have that kind of talent in place and you know it early, then it is so important to find ways to improve everything else on the field on the sideline up in the booth, maybe even in the stands. I don't know maybe it's the game day management. I had somebody text me was like, there's too many flutes in the band. That's how in their feelings are North Carolina fan.

They're, they're nitpicking every aspect of the game day experience. There was so much excitement going into that game, you then coming off of a bye week to just get to just get thoroughly pushed around on a down by down basis, massively disappointing, and look, if, if it wasn't Virginia Tech, I would be very worried about the lingering impacts of this game, but Virginia Tech is such a such a unique part of the ACC football experience. It's a tire fire, we all we all understand that all right, we'll get a prediction from you if you will on state Clemson when we come back plus I'm going to ask you this question chip Patterson are the best for maybe the best five teams in the ACC all in the same division next senior producer Dennis Cox on the ones and twos today. V to the Victoria is on assignment probably at a baby shower since that keeps the Panthers win hopes alive. Apparently, hopefully that will work out. She will be back tomorrow right Victoria back tomorrow.

That's correct. All right, let's get back to chip Patterson, my friend wearing a sport coat still wearing a sport coat. He must have to go back on TV. If you're watching on TV at WRAL sports plus then you say man chip chip cleans up. Well, all right, let's let's talk about first give me a prediction. Clemson hosting NC State in a monsoon in mid Ian, which by the way, I have a, I take umbrage with the fact that we're still calling this category 455 miles an hour.

When now, and it's 157 miles an hour it's cat five. Can we call it a four plus for a tune this like iPhones. Exactly. Or like a grade. Like, like if I get an 89 minutes a bit too good be it's a much better bit to be plus a at Maryland did they have a pluses. I was asking me. No, I don't believe we did. Yeah, I always like to chuckle at the for how a 4.3 would be able to really boost up that GPA I didn't have the opportunity, I found, I found the class is wink wink, or you could get finished with about a 97 98 average but, but they only counted for for me as I was trying to stay eligible as best I could, I give me Clemson 27 NC State 17 or 20 I think Clemson ends up covering the number I think that it's more than the over under total of 40.

Yeah. When does suppress scoring anybody who's listening to cover three podcast knows I love a wonder as much as anybody, but rain actually contributes to overs, and the fact that this thing is sitting around 40 is ridiculous. Someone's going to slip defender slip it's harder to bring the ball down, and also fumble touchdowns, because you can't hold on to it so it there, we have data on how rain impact scoring when we have data on that. Is there a certain mile per hour wind, where, like it really, it means, like, I don't know, explain that to me. Okay, so if you get above 10 miles an hour it starts to be more favorable if it's above 13. Like 13 to 17 is really the sweet spot and if it's crosswinds through the stadium, you need to find the direction over the stadium as well. That's going to impact your field goal kicking that's going to impact your passing Manhattan, Kansas, Ames, Iowa, Tulsa, Oklahoma, those are the spots where you really start to find the good crosswinds, but yes, wind, especially a sunny windy day is going to help your unders rain everybody thinks, because it's harder to throw the ball it's going to help your unders, but actually because of the inability to hold on to the ball, difficult it is to tackle and maintain your footing that actually ends up helping overs though it is not as much of an advantage as the wind aided under aka the wonder. Yeah, I think, I think Clemson wins, I think that it has nothing to do with whether NC State is ready for big boy football.

I think that this is a. This is a Tigers team that going up against Wake Forest found a major flaw in its defensive backfield, and both the wide receivers of NC State. If this was being played on a sunny day, but then also the conditions which are going to make it harder to push the ball down the field limit NC State's ability to take advantage of that Clemson defensive weakness, I'm going to circle back to Clemson at the end of this conversation about where they are in the national picture but the other question I asked going to break is it possible because we have Wake Forest playing at Florida State by the way both ranked teams should not Florida State should be ranked or not, not even for this conversation. I sure whether they should or not. I mean, there's probably 40 teams that look look pretty similar.

Maybe not 40 but you know when you get past say 12. There's not a whole lot of difference between a lot of these teams. It's disastrous that pit is ranked, I mean Florida State is ranked too but like pitch shouldn't be ranked.

I got no problem with with that not pit. Right. Okay, so is it possible that the best four, maybe five ACC teams are on the Atlantic Division. I think that it is it there's no possible about it, it's and it's not even probable, it is okay for best teams in the conference or Clemson NC State Wake Forest in Florida State, and to me, the distance is leaves the door open for you to put Syracuse into that conversation. Now I will say the underlying metric suggests that Syracuse while for no is probably barreling towards a six and six or seven and five finish, but good on Dino papers for getting the four wins. No one's going to ask you to give those back, you are hopefully going to be able to get this thing to a bowl game and be able to deliver on that for the first time since 2018, but it is, it is noticeable, you know, and pit has injury issues at the quarterback position which have limited where they stand in this conversation, but Miami is a mess. Right now, North Carolina has its issues Virginia and Virginia Tech are bad to the point where Duke is favored right now against Virginia and I feel like that's one of my most confident picks of the week is taking the Blue Devils to cover the short number against the Wahoos this Saturday.

I look this is a bad bad was it. How about this Adam last weekend. Do you know what the ACC coastal divisions cumulative record was I know but it has to be a smaller number on the left.

It is one in six Oh good. And the one was pit beating FCS Rhode Island. They hammered Rhode Island though didn't they. It was a 45 to 24 somewhere around that.

Not a not a blitzing. My point is, it is so perfect that the ACC Atlantic division fans for years clamored about how unfair it was. And then we saw a little bit of a shift back where it was a little bit evened out a little bit more balanced that here in this final year of division play. It is everything that they've complained about, because not just the two best, not just the three best but the four best teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference can only share one spot in the ACC championship game. Give me ACC Atlantic winner minus 425 over whoever comes out of the coastal in the ACC championship game in early December. Now that was on the money line not minus 425 points. I just want to make sure that all right to chip Patterson here from cover three podcast CVS sports.com.

This is my argument when the announcement came that we no longer needed divisions. It was the PAC 12 scrapped it. Why don't we scrap it now so we can have a better ACC championship game. I guess we were hoping that Miami would be real. Obviously Miami is not.

And I don't know. I don't know who's mean, who would you make the favorite on the, on the coastal division side right now I, I think I would make it North Carolina, in spite of what we saw against Notre Dame. Right, I mean, like, pit does it pits on its third string quarterback North Carolina's got a future first round draft pick right. And by the way, if I was Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke who just got benched against Middle Tennessee. Yeah, I'd be.

You can't enter your name officially in the transfer portal right now, but boy I'm sure you could send some DMS on Instagram to be able to try to figure out other places that you could go. That's like I don't know. I don't know where this goes for Miami because the offense is bad and hiring Josh Gaddis was supposed to be this big coup, taking them away from Michigan, but all of the worst fears for a Miami fan about Mario crystal balls impact on the offense like that man is a he coaches like a defensive coordinator, which is so frustrating when all Miami has had his old defensive coordinators. I mean, Mark Richt wasn't right but this. I mean this, this is like bad nightmares of Randy Shannon already.

This is not not a good situation. Let me ask you this question quickly about Mario crystal ball. Because all I heard for however long he was at Oregon, was that he was, I mean look he's a good coach and all that but Mario crystal ball always managed to get the least out of whatever he had on the field in terms of his office. So why would be we, why would we be surprised or anybody be surprised that Miami's offenses substandard. I mean it's, it's the Justin Herbert theory, right, like how, how does that person right barely move the needle, even at a place like Oregon at the quarterback position, then he gets to the NFL, and you're like, Oh wow, yeah, Mario crystal ball was an offensive coordinator who was promoted to replace Willie Taggart which, you know, when Willie Taggart left to go to Florida State, right, but that he coaches like a defensive coordinator, and they don't have the personnel to be able to go out there and win games, 17 to 10, their speed at the wide receiver position and the skill positions in general just isn't there.

I don't, he recruits really well, and he's trying to build a program on toughness, but they went down 24 to three to middle Tennessee, and they couldn't run the ball against middle Tennessee. I made the joke, and you called me out on it, that North Carolina had a NFL quarterback and NFL quarterback and a Conference USA defense conference USA defense just limited Miami to 1.6 yards per carry. So maybe North Carolina should be the favorite, because a Conference USA defense can go get you a win in Hard Rock Stadium. Well, and the other thing is that my feeling about North Carolina is that when it doesn't look like they were at a physical mismatch, they're fine.

Right, which means that pits the only real threat. Yeah, and, and they don't have an offense. So I guess Notre Dame didn't either maybe pedal scored good roll up 570 yards of total offense against the fullback to the backfield. Those are a late development Tommy Reese is like, Hmm, I know that he doesn't have that many carries on his career but I don't think he'll fumble, at least I think most of these defenders will bounce off of them that's what the tape says.

It was, it was remarkable. All right, real quick about Clemson and then we'll let chip Patterson go. The question was posed this morning on another network that could Clemson, make the playoff with a loss and a. It's way too early to have that conversation because we don't have enough context. They play on the right side of the bracket, if you will, to where if they were to lose to state finished seven and one in league finish still managed to win the ACC championship by winning a winning a tie because they have to win over Wake Forest if they finish seven and one whatever. It's still there for them.

But how do we know the answer to that question but isn't the answer is, isn't the answer, it kind of depends on whatever everybody what everybody else does. And they're Clemson, so they're going to get the benefit of the doubt. I will say that I am less confident in Clemson making it as a one loss team that was going into the season. And that is because the two huge games in November, when everybody is talking playoff win the playoff selection committee is meeting. Those games are at Notre Dame in South Bend, and against Miami. Those wins are now worthless. Those could have been wins that could have righted the ship, so to speak, proved that this is a team that is playoff worthy. And I think that in terms of the college football playoff conversation proving that you're a national championship contender beating Notre Dame, even if Notre Dame continues to roll off some wins here. I think that at this point beating Notre Dame and beating Miami, those games carry so much less weight that now Clemson needs to have a zero in the loss column to give itself the best chance of making the college football playoff. We agree that it's Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia, whatever the, whatever the order those are the three best I think it's the Ohio State and Alabama above Georgia but it doesn't matter. Regardless, who's the fourth best team.

Michigan. I know they just got it listen Terps gave them a wake up call. But that's that was the when you play a soft non conference schedule right and me comes in a little bit more battle tested there.

I was ready to rock and roll, I thought that Michael Oxley did a great job of getting that team ready for that game. And I think that Michigan probably didn't take it seriously enough, but Michigan's better than everybody else, except for maybe Penn State, but that games in Ann Arbor. So as I checked it out, Penn State winning in Ann Arbor doesn't really happen.

So no problem at Iowa, this week. Michigan is going to score three points in that game. That game is going to be the three Michigan is ruthlessly efficient.

Okay, good. I think they will be 11 and oh heading into the Ohio State game. And if that game is close, and they're not going to win but if that game is close, and they will be a one loss team that is looked the part and been in the top five all season.

I think that in all, I think the SEC Big Ten showdown in the college football playoff is what I project is the most likely outcome with Alabama and Georgia and Ohio State and Michigan, and they'll do whatever they can to talk themselves into not having semi finals that are just rematches of games that have happened in the end of the year, but that's what we'll have going into the CFP, that will be the the orchestrated final four will have crossover matchups. Probably should have chip Patterson you're the best. No dress code next week. All right, listen, I will see what the calendar says we'll see what the calendar says sounds good. Y'all be well, I met you Patterson. Adam Gold show. I am Adam Gold.

Dennis Cox senior producer on the ones in Tuesday. As I listened to, can I kick it often enough. It actually threw me. Okay, when Lou Reed started to sing.

It legitimately threw me. Like, wait. Oh, what this is this is actually the song.

Nice. All right. It's, it's not just the sample.

No, not just the sample. God, what a great track though both both great tracks. All right, let's let's place bets, shall we place your bets place your bets. I bet you slice into the woods 100 bucks gambling is illegal with Bushwood, sir, and I never slide. Let's have a little fun, shall we? Let's do it. Make a little. Let's make a little bread.

How'd you do yesterday? I didn't say. All right, let's let's ignore it. Let's move on.

All right, Aaron judge Homer plus 205 plus 205 now it you know, it's minus 300 for Aaron judge to not hit a home run. And I will just point this out and I am not that guy but sounds like you'd be back. It will be pointed out. And I guess I'm pointing it out. So yeah, you're right.

I am that guy. The Yankees have already played 154 games when Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs. They played 154 games. Yep.

So, for those people, and again, I am not one of them, but for those people. Aaron judge now gone six games since his 60th home run. Yeah, six or seven six or seven sounds that hundred since his 60th home run. I'll be it's 12 home runs tonight.

That won't happen, but I hope he does. All right, Braves Nationals, you know, that division is now tied. Yeah, Mets and Braves flat-footed tie seven to play.

Nobody's nervous in my house. Former Rays right-handed starter Jake O'Dorsey goes in Washington for Atlanta odor easy five or more strikeouts Braves win plus 275. Okay. Dolphins Bengals tomorrow night. Yes.

Yes, they are. Give me the Dolphins on the money line plus 165 that game is in Miami or Cincinnati in Cincinnati. I actually told our friend Joe Jillio last week. I said I like Dolphins plus 185 over the bills market correction. Yes market.

Actually. I think Miami could win this week. But my feeling is that every year this is the in the National Football League every single year. And by the way, this could happen to Philadelphia to even though I think Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC every year. Some team plays the first five or six games and you go. Oh my gosh, they look like the best team in the game.

And then it becomes real. Yeah, I think Miami is very good though. I do bangles are four-point favorite.

Yeah, that's a line that goes why yeah, right bangles cover watch. All right, but I'm again, what a who am I that means they can cover as long as the Dolphins win. That's fine.

No, if the Bengals cover the four and a half the Dolphins can't win. That's good. That's the way that's my man. I missed all that. Yeah. Yeah.

I'm my man. All right, Aaron judge Vladimir Guerrero jr. Giancarlo Stanton one hit each. Oh in tonight's Yankees J's game plus 235. Okay, that's a that's a thing.

That is a thing that is a thing. I'm going to go to your Mets minus a run and a half at plus 115. Yeah, I'm not I'm not feeling the way the Mets are playing right now. I am going to do I'm going to do a double here. Do a double here.

It's not a parlay just to two wagers one game. Give me Eduardo Escobar to Homer for the Mets at plus 500. Okay, give me the Marlins on the road plus 155. All right, I round it up. It's actually plus 153, but I can't do the math.

That's with a three and nobody cares and it's this is easier for me just easier for me to do that. Yeah, I mean it gets very real the pitching matches by the way Mets and Braves in Atlanta might have their schedule altered. They might be kicking out the Saturday game playing Friday kicking out the Saturday Saturday game and doing a split doubleheader on Sunday because Ian is due. This is the Adam Gold Show.