Share This Episode
The Charlie Kirk Show Charlie Kirk Logo

Will We Know the Results on Election Night?

The Charlie Kirk Show / Charlie Kirk
The Truth Network Radio
September 23, 2024 8:00 pm

Will We Know the Results on Election Night?

The Charlie Kirk Show / Charlie Kirk

On-Demand Podcasts NEW!

This broadcaster has 1196 podcast archives available on-demand.

Broadcaster's Links

Keep up-to-date with this broadcaster on social media and their website.


September 23, 2024 8:00 pm

Millions of conservatives remember the shocking moment in 2020 when Fox News prematurely called Arizona for Joe Biden. How did that happen, who was responsible, and what are the odds it happens again? Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics joins Charlie to discuss that infamous episode, and then guess when the results of this cycle will finally be confirmed. Plus, YouTube streamer Abraham Eyre discusses his viral response to one of Charlie's latest campus showdowns.

Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/support

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

COVERED TOPICS / TAGS (Click to Search)
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE
The Truth Pulpit
Don Green
Cross Reference Radio
Pastor Rick Gaston
Clearview Today
Abidan Shah
Kerwin Baptist
Kerwin Baptist Church
Discerning The Times
Brian Thomas

Hey everybody, enjoy this episode. Become a member. Members.CharlieKirk.com. That is Members.CharlieKirk.com. Email us as always Freedom at CharlieKirk.com and become a member to support this program.

Buckle up everybody. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campuses. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk's running the White House folks. I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job. Building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA. We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

That's why we are here. Noble Gold Investments at NobleGoldInvestments.com. That is NobleGoldInvestments.com. It's where I buy all of my gold. Go to NobleGoldInvestments.com.

That is NobleGoldInvestments.com. She's been indoctrinated in college to only see the world in terms of power disparities, not decipher it in terms of logic, reason, rationality, to understand the objective nature of any system or reality. Instead, she's been fed a one-dimensional analysis of oppressor, oppressee, where ideas have so little weight in comparison to adherence to the cult that they're essentially meaningless and being asked to articulate them is the same as being asked to engage in theater.

Almost perversely enough, in an act of bad faith. Because in the left, who asks you to engage in ideas? You're a good person just as a result of saying the right lines, identifying with the correct identity, and acknowledging other people's identity, and attributing to them the correct amount of counterfeit virtue as a result of their hypothetical victimhood. That impressive video is a young man by the name of Abraham Iyer, and he joins us right now. Abraham, I hope I got your last name correct. Abraham joins us. Abraham, thank you for joining us.

Our team sent that video to me over the weekend. I was very impressed. I said, get on the show. I'll be very honest, Abraham, I don't know very much about you, and we're meeting for the first time.

Why don't you introduce yourself to the audience and the work that you do? Thank you, Charlie. Thank you for having me on. I'm glad you got to see that video. I was actually hoping that one day you would get to see my analysis because that video that I saw of you talking with that girl just completely surprised me. Anyway, my name is Abraham Iyer.

I'm 23 years old. Since the age of 17, I've been obsessed with understanding the architecture of the left-wing ideology, in particular Marxism, because I view it as the greatest existential threat to civilization and humanity. I could talk for two hours about the nature of Marxism, but one of the most fundamental aspects, I think, is its feminine denial of objective reality and any type of objective system or framework that makes sense of the world, like reason-rationality logic. You definitely got to see that represented in that video, almost to such an extent that I thought, is this a script? Because this girl started off with emotional attacks and then ended up sexually exposing herself to you, which was just so bizarre to see.

Freud would have a field day, that's for sure. But yeah, I'm 23 years old. You can find my YouTube channel. I upload daily.

So that's kind of what I've been doing for the last year and a half. After COVID, I decided I had to speak out because things were getting insane. The left was going off the rails. Well, you have a great talent and you're welcome here. So let's dive into it. I could play more of this video, but let me just summarize this for the audience in the sake of time.

So it was not staged. And forgive me for my voice. I'm doing my best to try to fight through this. I lost my voice. It's totally fine.

I completely understand. I lost my voice on campus. So I'm screaming at all these people. Outdoor talking, Blake, is the easiest way to lose your voice, by the way. Yeah. To be clear, not really screaming at people. Not screaming, just have an amplify. Yeah, exactly. So, Abraham, this was not staged.

I was there next to Vivekramaswamy. This young lady comes up and she is guns a blazing and she is very aggressive. She's also pathological. I don't say that lightly because she said, I don't know who you are. And then 20 seconds later, she recites all this information about me. She knows my age. She knows my YouTube information. So it's like, I don't even know who you are. OK, whatever. But what about this video? And we'll play the clips throughout our conversation. Abraham was demonstrative about a more macro problem we're seeing in the country because I don't want to pick on this young lady.

She's she I'm sure she has her own struggles and I'll pray for her. But it is important on the macro. What did this demonstrate in the macro? Abraham in your analysis? Well, I think that the left doesn't believe in truth as a concept. So when you saw her not caring about reason, logic or ideas on any level, that wasn't just that wasn't an accident.

And I don't I don't say that lightly. I think it is actually a technically true statement that the left doesn't care about the concept of truth. Because when you look at postmodern neo Marxism, what what's clear is that they demonize any system of making sense of the world as inherently oppressive, toxic, patriarchal, patriarchal, corrupt, predatory.

And as a result of this, there is no way to make true statements that are that are allowed. And so only adherence to the political identity, which is one of identitarianism, is acceptable to these people. And so as soon as it became clear to her that you violated that stipulation to her ideology, ideas were a secondary order priority.

There was no attention to detail because attention to detail is making a statement in and of itself, which is that we could make progress by paying attention to detail. They don't actually believe that there is something at the end of that process. This is also the reason they don't believe in free speech, by the way, because to believe in free speech means you have to accept that two people can collaborate to create a better outcome. I don't actually believe they believe in the concept of a better outcome because there is nothing greater than their ideology. And their ideology doesn't, again, it rejects any objective system like logic as inherently oppressive.

And so you were, as far as she was concerned, a corrupt predator embodying the patriarchy, possibly white supremacy, any slander where you could think of to discredit you so that she doesn't have to contend with what you have to say. And this is, of course, the nature of the left-wing ideology and why, frankly, the left seems so disconnected from reality. I mean, you're on X. You see it every day. I'm on X. I see this constantly.

It's gotten to the point where Elon Musk is tweeting about this because there is no end to the insanity. And people ask, why is that the case? Why are they so self-evidently insane and disconnected from reality?

And I liken it often to zombies because I live in California. I know a lot of liberals. I know a lot of rich liberals. And there's sort of two groups of people. One group of people is separated from reality fundamentally because of their allegiance to this ideology.

And the other is able to think rationally and accept the individuality of a person, you know, doesn't disparage meritocracy or logic. You know, the list goes on. But this is definite.

Her behavior was endemic to the leftist ideology most technically. Let's play cut 28 here just so our audience can get a little bit more of a flavor. Just so everyone understands, this video has been seen based on Elon Musk sharing and others. This video has been seen on the low end one hundred and forty million times. Congratulations for Elon Musk ending that, by the way. I want to say that's very sweet.

Elon's great. Let's play cut 28. Do you feel proud of yourself for debating college kids who are unprepared to speak in front of an audience like yourself? Hold on, hold on, hold on. You're 30 years old. We can agree you're 30 years old, right?

Do you think that's a little bit silly? Are you a voter? I am a voter. Oh, so I vote and you vote. So I'm talking to voters of this country that will determine the future of Western civilization.

Yeah, well, hold on. How is it any different than a professor talking to you? A professor talking to you?

Who are you? Well, enough important enough for you to come up to a microphone. Actually, when I first saw this ad, I thought it was like a like an improv comedy thing. It looked so ridiculous that I didn't even think it was real.

Well, no, you could see. Look how popular Trump is on your campus. How does that make you feel?

That's not comedy. That is a five alarm fire for Kamala Harris because she's probably going to lose Pennsylvania. No, I just want to be clear. Is there something wrong with talking to voters? No, there's nothing wrong with talking to voters.

Well, that's what we're doing here today. It's an open mic. I think that you push a dangerous agenda. What does that video tell you?

Well, it seemed like theater to me because you could think of it as emotional criticism or emotionally lashing out. When she was doing that to you, it almost seemed as though she didn't believe her own words. And again, the reason for that is because there's no truth outside the left wing ideology as far as they're concerned.

They don't have to make sense. They don't have that standard the way you and I care about being logical or representing objective reality. Objective reality is their enemy.

They demonize it because it is oppressive. And she's you know, it's disingenuous. But you could tell that she knew as she was saying the words that it was completely disingenuous. You know, it's not authentic. And so I think that this is a almost Freudian level embodiment of the left wing psychopathology, as far as I'm concerned. And that was a perfect clip that you just played to to demonstrate that.

Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here. Americans are tired and frustrated by a stalling economy, inflation, endless wars and the relentless assault on our values. Thankfully, there's companies like Patriot Mobile that still believe in America and our Constitution. I'm proud to partner with Patriot Mobile because they're on the front lines fighting for the First and Second Amendments, sanctity of life and our military and first responder heroes. Take a stand for conservative causes and put America first by switching to Patriot Mobile today. You'll get the same nationwide coverage as the big providers because Patriot Mobile operates across all three major networks. Plus, they back their service with a coverage guarantee.

They're 100 percent U.S. based customer service team will find the best plan for your needs. Go to Patriot Mobile dot com slash Charlie or call 972 Patriot right now. Get a free month when you use offer code Charlie. Don't get fooled by other providers pretending to share your values or the same coverage. Go to Patriot Mobile dot com slash Charlie or call 972 Patriot for your free month of service today.

That is Patriot Mobile dot com slash Charlie Patriot Mobile dot com slash Charlie. So, Abraham, what is it more broadly about the left wing ideology that is so compelling that young women seem to receive it openly? And we see this with the gender divide or the sex divide. Young men are very much more to the right.

Young ladies, very far to the left. What explains that? What I think explains that, you know, I'm reminded of something Jordan Peterson said in 2017 with Kathy Newman where he said in order to think you have to risk being offensive. You know, in high school, coming out of high school, even in college, you have to be able to go to war in a sense to defend ideas that make sense. It's a lot easier to just participate in an ideology that, for lack of a better term, just calls you a good person as a result of being a part of that ideology. So, if you were to join, let's say, a group of people that their fundamental landscape of thinking is morally relativistic, but, you know, all you have to do is sacrifice your individual identity.

They call you a good person. And once you engage in that type of thinking, you can call yourself a hero. You can pretend as though you're righteous without having any actual merit. The reason why I think you saw her act so psychopathically in front of you, and it functionally is psychologically induced psychopathy, where you see her believing that she is the righteous one, that she is the good one, that she is the one who has merit and is acting out coherence, despite talking to a literal billionaire, Vivek Ramaswamy, and yourself, who are talking about ideas really on a surface level, you're talking with her on a level that is elementary, let's just say, because that's the most she can handle, and yet she still believes she's better than you.

This is due to the fact that their ideology says you are above reality, you are above having to make sense. And that's a very compelling young message to feminine personalities. So you see this not only with women, but also with men as well that have a feminine personality, that they would rather pretend to be heroes than do the work to be actually meritorious or virtuous. And this is something that I saw personally even in my high school growing up. So I actually went to the same high school that Elon Musk's son Xavier, the school that turned his son trans went to, and this is something that was rampant. When I first discovered Jordan Peterson, which is really what set me on the path that resulted in me not being a leftist, I was in 11th grade, I remember where I was sitting, but in that same classroom, we had a teacher that told us that paper was racist because it was white. We were deconstructing book analysis, but instead of engaging in ideas, that's the level that we were engaging on. Because again, to engage in logic, reason, rationality is to risk being offensive. And to these people being offensive means you have to defend ideas. Once you defend ideas, then it's clear that there's a truth. And then once there's an objective truth that is external to the ideology, that's unacceptable. So this is a very compelling young message for feminine personalities, especially low verbal IQ personalities. A bit of research that Peterson referenced in 2021 that really stuck with me was proclivity to abide and left-wing authoritarianism is positively correlated, very strongly positively correlated, in fact, with a feminine personality distribution and low verbal IQ. And so this is the reason why you see, I'll just be honest, so many podcasts and characters, and they're not just characters, I don't mean that in a disparaging way, but people like Andrew Tate, etc., that are speaking out against this effeminate programming, or you could call it a psy-op of civilization, because once you reject the necessity to risk being offensive, then you can basically program people with whatever message you want and at the same time, of course, destroy the nuclear family and any resistance to this heinous groupthink.

So Abraham, this is the difficulty you're pinpointing it, and the video was very clear. How do you win them over if they don't believe in dialogue? So the answer to that, I think, is that you have to enforce consequences, because since we're essentially looking at induced psychopathology, these people are functionally psychopathic since they believe that they are above reality, that is the definition of a psychopath. If you think about it, psychopath says that I don't have to care about other people because I am better than them. These people don't think they have to care about reality because they think their ideology supersedes reality. And so the only way to cure this, the only way to get over it, I think, is to enforce consequences, given that approximately 2% of the population is psychopathic at any given time. They don't care about hurting other people. They only care about what will happen to them.

They only calculate in their head, what can I get away with? And this is the reason why we have laws, is so that there are consequences. I think that the consequences that we must enforce on these people first is electing Donald Trump, because this is the only way we can combat these heinous, freak-chosen lunatics, is to get him in office because he will enforce consequences. But beyond that, we just have to demonstrate to these people we are not afraid. And I think that this is why your conversation is so important.

We are winning back the expectation that we are not somehow in the wrong for calling out girls as broken as the one you spoke to, as she's clearly not virtuous. Abraham, I want to have you back, and we can do an entire hour, and you kind of dissect all of our campus stuff. We'll send you some videos, you guys can do that. Thank you. We'll have you back. Thank you. Thank you so much, Charlie.

Thank you for having me. $280 can save 10 babies. $28 a month can save a baby a month all year long. And a $15,000 gift will provide a complete ultrasound machine that will save thousands of babies for years and years to come. And will also save moms from a lifetime of pain and regret. Call 833-850-2229, that's 833-850-2229, or click on the preborn banner at charliekirk.com. That is charliekirk.com and click on the preborn banner.

Also save moms from a lifetime of pain and regret. I'm a donor of this organization. They're terrific.

Go to charliekirk.com, click on the preborn banner. Joining us now is Tom Bevin from Real Clear Politics. Tom, welcome to the program. Tom, thank you for bearing with me. I'm doing the NPR host thing today because my voice is a little worn down.

I noticed that, Charlie. Yeah, it's a little worn down, but here we are. So, Tom, we all remember the early Arizona call back in 2020 when Fox News said, breaking news, Donald Trump has lost Arizona, Joe Biden has. What happened there? People in this audience still have some form of PTSD.

Let's go back four years ago. What do we know about that night? Well, I mean, Fox, I think, you know, jumped the gun. They ended up being right in the end, but the call itself seemed sort of premature, right? And the decision desk that was responsible for making that call, I think, ended up, as I said, they were defending it, but there was about 74% of the vote in and Biden had a, and this was at about 1120 at night and on the East Coast. And there was, Biden was leading by, I think, seven points or so, but there's still a decent amount of vote left to be counted.

And the polls in Arizona, I went back and looked at our Brooklyn politics average, it was under 1%. So all of the polling suggested that Arizona was going to be a very, very tight race. And so when that call came out, obviously people, it raised a bunch of eyebrows among folks as to, and Fox was the first to call Arizona.

That was the other thing. I mean, the AP didn't call it until a few hours later. Some of the other networks didn't call it until the following day. So it was definitely one of those calls that raised a few eyebrows. And look, Bret Baier got hung out to dry here.

We know that now because of disclosed text messages. And I want to play the tape here to go back into it. Bret Baier was told by the people, hey, this race is called. And Bret Baier's instincts were right, saying, guys, this is going to come down to like 10,000 votes. And in fact, it did. It very well could have tilted either way. This was a lucky guess by Fox.

And Bret Baier was really kind of put in front of the firing line here. Let's play cut 12. I were the Trump campaign.

I would feel great about Ohio. We're not there yet. There's just too much vote out. And there's too much potentially heavily Democratic mail vote that may flop in at the end to get to to get too froggy right now with Ohio. We're going to be careful, cautious and earnest. All right. But you weren't careful, cautious and earnest in Arizona. We were too.

Why? Because there's all this day of vote, right? You said that each state starts off with the early vote, the mail in vote, the absentee, the early vote. And that's a skew toward the Democrats, almost six out of 10. But then we've seen in state after state that the Trump vote comes in on the day of votes.

It seems to be populating more and more. So why can you say it definitively in Arizona? Well, we were careful, cautious and earnest. Yeah, right. Bret's instincts were right.

It was a complete guesswork. Remember, he would not call Ohio, which ended up being an eight to nine point victory for Donald Trump. But they would call Arizona, which came down to 10000 votes. And Ohio started counting earlier because, you know, it's East Coast, East Coast, two, three hours ahead coast. And yeah, as you said, won it by eight points by 500000 votes. Arizona ended up coming down to 10000.

And and you're right. It's unfortunate what happened to Bret Baier. I knew him when I was at Fox. I was very close to his office. He's a great man.

He's a great guy and very fair. And it's it really speaks to how the 2020 election was like. It was kind of a like it was a spiritual experience for a lot of people. It was a very high, very emotional, very you know, it was a very powerful moment for them. And I think what really hurt people was the early results in 2020 were so good for Trump and so surprising.

And so there was this rising, rising hope. And then Fox comes in with this premature call in Arizona. And it was like the record scratch moment. And it's like a lot of people were like, oh, you know, Fox is doing it's part of the steal. And like this was the signal that they were going to do all this bad stuff.

I personally don't think that's how it unfolded. I think it really was a guy at Fox made a while. It was Chris Steyer, Bill Salmon and Chris. They're all gone.

Brett Baer was just following orders. He's the guy. He's the guy at the desk. He's their evening news anchor. And he basically he announces the calls that the desk makes. He's busy on TV. He's not making the calls himself.

He can't do math. He's talking to the audience. You can see in that clip he's pushing back and was pretty upset that he was the guy on screen holding the bag. And so, Tom, do you have a thought there? Yeah, I mean, listen.

So that clip is great. It's a great example of because at that point there was 94 percent of the vote in in Ohio and Trump was leading by eight points. And Chris Steyer was saying, hey, we don't want to get too ahead of our skis here.

We don't want to get froggy. You know, there's still some votes to come in. And I think Brett rightly pushed back and said, well, wait a minute. So how does that play with the Arizona call that you guys made earlier? And then we found out subsequently in messages that were released, I think as part of the Dominion suit, that that Brett was very concerned right from the beginning and actually pushed the folks at Fox to basically rescind that call.

And he was he was denied. But I mean, I think he knew right from the beginning. And I've had conversations with Brett about this as well. I think he you know, he didn't they don't give the anchors a heads up as to what calls they're making or when they're making, why they're why they're making them. He just gets that information and is supposed to, you know, pass it along to the viewers. It is up to the folks at the decision desk. And as you mentioned, that was Bill Salmon, who was running that desk.

Steyer, what was on it as well? And they're no longer with Fox. Yeah. And I'll just say one final thought. Blake, you made a really apt point is that I was in the White House when that call made and I was I was kind of courting a group of people that were very anxious. I said, guys, these these like Trump has a shot here and we are seeing all this momentum. And within minutes, I'm from Arizona. They call Arizona. And I I was humiliated. And I was like, no, no, no. And I was calling people and people on the ground in Arizona.

They're like, there's no way this should be called yet. Like, yes, Biden had a good showing with early voting. And I remember talking to somebody that knew the Fox News brain room and the Fox News brain room was like, oh, yeah, there's no way Trump will get within like one hundred thousand votes. It came down to 10000 votes.

And so it could have went either direction. And so remember, Trump ended up winning the late earlies by 60 percent. And so so, Tom, I want to segue here to 2024 because I wanted to set the table there with that in just a couple of weeks. It's like forty five, forty four days. Do you think we'll have clarity on who the next president is on election night?

No, I don't. Not necessarily because of Arizona. I mean, we just had a poll come out this morning. New York Times, Siena has Trump up five in Arizona and he's actually leading in all six of the polls there.

And our average is up by about two points. So he's getting a little bit of separation with Kamala Harris in Arizona. But in Wisconsin, for example, Pennsylvania, those are both states that are going to they're not going to start counting until after the polls close. And in Pennsylvania's case, I think they're going to you know, they could be counting for days in Pennsylvania. And that race is also very, very close, less than one percentage point in our real clear politics average. So Pennsylvania looks like it's going to be the tipping point, the key to this election. And so I don't think we're going to know who the president is on election night.

And Blake, what are your thoughts? I was just wondering, you might know this, Tom, if we have so it looks like we'll have less early voting than in 2020 overall. Does that improve? Does that mean we get more ballots counted on election night, the ones that are cast day of? Because I know there were issues in 2020 where they were talking like they had to open all of the envelopes. There was a lot of like busy work that had to be done with ballots that weren't counted, early ballots that weren't counted till election night.

Do you have any insight on that? Yeah, I mean, there's like 43 states have some sort of early counting process, right? Because the ballots have to be they have to be processed before they, you know, verified and all that before they can actually be tallied.

And some states allow that to happen, you know, days before. And some states and then they allow the counting of those votes to start at a later date. So but you're right, there are less early votes, less mail in votes.

It appears to be this time around, obviously, because there's, you know, 2020 was during COVID and a lot of people availed themselves of that option. And a lot of states have sort of clawed back some of those, some of the election laws from 2020. So I do think we'll have less votes. But again, in some of these states, we're talking millions and millions of votes. You know, if they start counting after the polls close on election night, you know, they're going to be counting for days.

And again, in the two key states where that's going to happen is Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both of which are absolutely razor thin right now. Yeah. And Tom, again, I even if all of this was done ethically and correctly and legally, can we all agree that these multiple days of counting has the appearance that deteriorates a fair and open process? This is not the way there's got to be a better way. We know there's a better way to do this.

Tom, it's as if they're begging for people to lose to get off balance. Yeah. And especially because of the disparity with which the votes.

Right. Democrats availed themselves of mail in ballots and early vote much more than Republicans. So you do you get this this idea of, you know, Republicans typically vote day of and Trump had encouraged. He's he's been a little bit more amenable to telling folks to, you know, do mail in balloting. But for the most part, he was like, you know, show up on election day. So all of Trump's votes get tallied early and he goes out to a big lead. And then, you know, as they as they open some of these mail ballots and start telling those, his lead dissipates as we get overnight.

We saw this in Wisconsin last time around, you know, Milwaukee at three in the morning or whenever some of these dumps come in of absentee ballots. And it does. It invites the idea that, you know, everything is not on the up and up.

And obviously that that is not good for the Republicans, not good for, you know, the foundation of our democracy in our elections. I agree. And I just want to say, Tom, I'm doing my part.

I visit Real Clear Politics 55 times a day. So you're getting my CPM. So. OK, very good. Constantly, constantly refresh, refresh, refresh. It is the premier Web site.

And I got to do better. You know, in off election years, I might visit RCP couple times. But as soon as you guys have the best horse race coverage and I know you have other stuff in addition to that, it's not a knock on that other stuff. But once I start to lock in and I want to see where a presidential race is at, I'm sure you see it in the Web traffic, Tom.

I'm sure it just goes to the moon. Are you ready to lose weight but not sure where to start? I understand.

I was right where you are two years ago. Let me tell you why I chose the Ph.D. weight loss and nutrition program. First, Dr. Ashley Lucas has her Ph.D. in chronic disease and sports nutrition. Her program is based on years of research and is science based. Second, the Ph.D. program starts nutrition. There's so much more they know that 90 percent of permanent change comes from the mind and they work on eliminating the reason you gain this weight in the first place. There's no shortcuts, pills or injections, just solid science based nutrition and behavior change. And finally, a probably most importantly, I lost 30 pounds.

Look, they're amazing. If you want to lose weight, you've got to go to my Ph.D. weight loss dot com. I was just texting with Dr. Ashley Lucas today. If you're ready to lose weight for the last time, call 864-644-1900. Go online at my Ph.D. weight loss dot com. Do what I did and what hundreds of my listeners have done and call today.

864-644-1900. I recommend their program. Dr. Ashley Lucas has her Ph.D. in chronic disease and sports nutrition. Her program is based on years of research and is science based.

Second, the Ph.D. program starts nutrition, but it's so much more. My Ph.D. weight loss dot com. My Ph.D. weight loss dot com.

Call 864-644-1900. I lost over 30 pounds. Dr. Ashley Lucas, great American.

Check it out. My Ph.D. weight loss dot com. We are here with the gold standard in election coverage. RealClearPolitics.com. Tom, congratulations.

What you guys have built there is really the best in the business. And I know this is your Super Bowl season, literally. Tom, in the RealClearPolitics average, number one, talk to us about what it takes to actually be in the blend of polling, because you guys have a very specific methodology. You don't accept every poll that is out there. And then number two, what is your current RCP average show in the battleground states with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? So, yeah, we we definitely, you know, take a look at every pollster and we don't accept any campaign polls.

We don't put any pack polls into our averages. It has to be publicly available polling data. Typically, you know, we like to see folks that are attached to a media outlet or someone who's been, you know, polling a state for a long time. Like every cycle, you'll get people who pop up out of nowhere who are suddenly doing battleground state polling. And we typically don't include those folks for a number of cycles until we know who they are and they have a track record and we feel comfortable with them.

And so that's sort of how our process works. What's interesting, and I've been saying this, Charlie, you look at Kamala Harris had a couple of good national polls over the weekend, right? The NBC and CBS News had her up five and four points. She's up 2.2 percent in our RealClearPolitics national average. That is 16 polls that have been taken over the last three weeks. And yet with the new data that we got this morning from The New York Times, CNN, some of these battleground states, Trump is up on average by one tenth of one percent. So when you go back and think to 2016, Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1 percent. She was leading by three percent in the polls. She won by 2.1 and she lost the Electoral College.

This has all the hallmarks to me. It reminds me very much of 2016. And, you know, Kamala Harris is ahead and I think Trump's only leading in two of the 16 national polls. But if you go, as I mentioned before, in Arizona, he's got a two-point lead there. He's leading in every poll in Arizona. He's got a two-point lead in Georgia. He's leading in all seven polls that we have in our average in Georgia. He's got a narrow lead in North Carolina and Kamala Harris has got narrow leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania is less than a point. And then she's up about one point in Wisconsin and one point seven in Michigan right now. So pretty tight in the battleground states.

But certainly, you know, I think right now it's about as close as you can possibly be. And again, if you take and translate those into the Electoral College, Kamala Harris is winning the Electoral College, I think, 272 to 266 or something like that in our map. But if Pennsylvania flips, you know, that's the key state in this entire thing right now. So, Tom, what does your data show about the U.S. Senate?

Who is likely to control it and what states are going to matter? The Senate is looking good for Republicans. It's a good year for the Republicans map-wise, right? There are 34 seats up, 23 defended by Democrats. West Virginia is basically a pickup for Republicans.

I don't think there's anybody in America who thinks that a Democrat's going to win that seat. And so outside of that, the Democrats are doing pretty well in a lot of these incumbents. Even when Biden was sort of failing back before he dropped out, Democrats were running pretty well ahead of Biden. And so those races have tightened, but Democrats are still ahead in places like Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and the like. The problem is Montana, where Jon Tester has not led in a single poll since Tim Sheehy won the Republican nomination there. And that's a state that's going to go for Trump by, you know, 15, 18, 20 points or more. And so Jon Tester, while he's been able to win in the past, it's going to be a real uphill battle for him. He's going to have to get like one out of every three Trump voters to turn and vote for him on split their ticket and vote for him.

And that's just, I don't see that happening either. And so just based on that alone, Republicans would take the Senate 51-49. Now, could they win some of these other races? Pennsylvania's tightened up quite a bit. You know, you've got, I think the Michigan race has tightened up a little bit. Arizona's tightened up a little bit. The only one that really hasn't tightened is Nevada, where Jackie Rosen still has a pretty commanding lead. And then you've got your sort of outlier in Maryland with Larry Hogan, who's within striking distance, which would be, I mean, that would be, obviously, if Hogan wins, I think that is the most Democrat state in the country, Maryland. It could be. You would know, Tom, it's top five most Democrat states in the country.

It'd be amazing. Tom, thank you so much. We're out of time. RealCarePolitics.com. Thank you. You got it. Thanks, Charlie. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us as always. Freedom at CharlieKirk.com. Thanks so much for listening and God bless.
Whisper: medium.en / 2024-09-23 20:13:26 / 2024-09-23 20:28:33 / 15

Get The Truth Mobile App and Listen to your Favorite Station Anytime