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Chip Patterson, CBS Sports, joins Adam to go over the latest College Football Playoff Rankings and what that means for teams that are regulars to the playoffs and now may not even make it in!

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November 9, 2022 4:25 pm

Chip Patterson, CBS Sports, joins Adam to go over the latest College Football Playoff Rankings and what that means for teams that are regulars to the playoffs and now may not even make it in!

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November 9, 2022 4:25 pm

Chip Patterson, CBS Sports, joins Adam to go over the latest College Football Playoff Rankings and what that means for teams that are regulars to the playoffs and now may not even make it in! Which teams still have to pull off some tough wins and which ones need to hope for other team scenarios to play out in their favor? What was Chip quoting Boo Corrigan on when talking Clemson and NC State?

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It's where Duke football belongs. Why aren't they in the college football playoff rankings? How did you forget Duke? Hey, wait a second. What happens if Duke wins out? Uh-oh. Hold on.

Let me check there. Duke is six and three. Nine and three Duke? What? Nine and three Duke. It's a mother feather in North Carolina's cap.

I know. Let's talk college football playoff rankings with my friend Chip Patterson at chip underscore Patterson from the cover three podcast. I listened to you and Tom Fornelli this morning reacting to the podcast. Tom, Tom is Tom is great. I love Tom. Tell Tom tell Fornelli.

I said hi, especially when he's tweeting about Napoli on Twitter. All right. Were you surprised that TCU, I wouldn't say jumped Tennessee, but are you surprised that TCU is ahead of Tennessee? Yeah, I mean, I was too. Yeah, not because of my belief of, you know, deserving or any of my how I would rank these teams. I was surprised because I thought the college football playoff selection committee was going to look at Tennessee, which has wins against Alabama and LSU teams that had been in the top 10 of last week's rankings and we're likely going to both be at or around the top 10 in this week's rankings and say those wins are better than what TCU has because TCU had a really bad week for its resume where Kansas State lost to Texas Oklahoma State lost to Kansas and then all the sudden those ranked wins are starting to fall apart. Now, Kansas State does remain in the top 25 of the new rankings Oklahoma State falls out and you combine that with Boo Corgan's own comments about TCU not being a balanced team. I was like, well, geez that that doesn't bode well for the horned frogs, especially when we talk about the debate of four and five, but one thing that has been consistent even as the selection committee has changed out members from year to year.

The one statistic that they all seem to agree on is the loss column. So, TCU has a zero in the loss column. I think that statistic more than anything allowed TCU to get the number four spot ahead of Tennessee.

But I will say that as they always claim that they start over every single week and that means that just because you're in at number four doesn't mean you can fall out. Just ask TCU that was number four in the penultimate rankings put 55 on the scoreboard, but was not the outright big 12 champion. They get jumped by Ohio State in the very first college football playoff. So just because TCU is in at number four not even winning out, though, I do think winning out would guarantee it, but not even winning out could be safe for the horned frogs.

All right, Chip Patterson from CBS college football expert cover three podcast moderator. I just want to provide context for people who don't know what you were referring to because that was the very first college football playoff season and TCU and Baylor were four and five in the rankings and Ohio State was six. I believe going into the last one and TCU and Baylor met Baylor I think beat TCU, but Baylor lost to somebody else. TCU had a non-conference win over Minnesota, right, which was an eight and four Minnesota team Baylor's best non-conference win was against I believe Oak Hill Academy. They played nobody that year and when it got right down to it, there was it was pre big 12 championship game. So but one they had they shared right out. They shared the big 12 conference title and the loss to Baylor was 61 to 58 lost by three points on the road from number four to outside, which I think is more more points than Baylor's men's basketball team was scoring at the time, but Ohio State won the big 10.

So there was a long way to get to that for me. Ohio State wins the big 10 to become the outright big 10 champion. That's something that Tennessee cannot do. Right on without I mean with us Georgia helps.

Alicia has to lose the next two games, right? So they've only got two SEC games left Mississippi State and Kentucky Georgia has to lose them both right Tennessee to make the SEC chance. So because Tennessee can't be the SEC champion, then it's hard for me like they can get back in if TCU loses and I assume that if TCU loses Tennessee will be next man up. We have we do have Ohio State and Michigan who are going to play but if TCU does not lose again, and I would have said this anyway, even if TCU were fifth to me that would been the easiest thing for them to do because you can't say right now that TCU is a conference champion because nobody is but if they had just left TCU at five and just said, yeah, Tennessee has two of the best wins in the entire entire country on their resume as top 10 to top 10 wins if TCU were to go undefeated. Well, they're conference champions. Therefore, they I think they would move ahead of Tennessee.

I thought it was easier for them to do this. I mean, I don't really care one way or the other because TCU is going to have to win out to get it. No, well, they get a loss. They're seven-point underdogs this week, right at Texas like this and then whoever they play in the Big 12 in the Big 12 Championship game, it might be Texas. They still haven't played Baylor yet. They've got to play Baylor on the road. It might be Baylor.

It might be Kansas State a team that they were trailing by double digits in the second half. Like this is so difficult for TCU staring down the road to get to 13 and 0 because as you and I said last week as you and I seem to agree 13 and 0 TCU is in the college football play a hundred percent but we can say that without feeling reckless because it is in an unbelievable task to be able to get this TCU team to 13 and 0 and if they accomplish that task, you got to put give them a shot at the national title because it would be one of the most memorable seasons that honestly in Big 12 history, especially when you consider the Dramatics of the Midseason stretch the way that they've consistently been able to overcome deficits and they go in to Austin and take down Texas this weekend and that is a monumental win, but no breaks as they have to then go play Dave Aranda in Waco. It is tough sledding for the Horned Frogs to which in the back of at least one committee member's mind, they're probably like, yeah, let's put them at four and we'll be there for long.

Yeah, probably not. I don't know what the odds are what are what are they probably on the money line probably plus I don't know 200 to win at Texas. You're right if they're two to one. I mean at best, they're 40% chance to win 35% chance to win at Texas. Let's just say it's 40% and then at Baylor about the same the odds of them going three and oh and then winning the big twelve championship game probably one and eight. It's so hard to beat a team twice and that's what we would be asking TCU to do is potentially to play Texas in Austin beat Texas in Austin then potentially play Texas again in Dallas and beat Texas again. I mean it would there would be no argument against a 13 and OTCU because of what TCU would have accomplished in getting there.

Chip Patterson is joining us here. We're going to leave the two teams who I believe eliminated themselves Saturday for the second part of our conversation. I am I'm curious your money line math in your head.

That was very good. Even probability is easy. Okay, probability is whatever percentages times whatever the percentages. So if your percentage is 40% to win a game and the next percentage is 40% to win a game. You're already down to what 0.4 times 0.4 whatever that is 0.1. TCU is plus 222.

I thought you just did a seven-point spread to a 200 mile line. I was guessing. That's pretty good. Thank you.

Thank you. Well, you know, we place bets every day. Place your bets. It's just making just every day. We should be calling you Adam Sharp Gold. Sharp Gold here. It's so much easier to do it when there is no money at stake.

So much easier to do. I just don't care. All right, so Ohio State and Michigan and for all the conversation about Clemson hasn't played anybody level like we keep just giving the Big 10.

We don't talk about it. It's a two-team league. Penn State isn't and I with my opinion Penn State isn't any better than NC State.

No better. I don't think there's anybody that good in the Big 10 that we should go. Hey, that's a great win. But records Ohio State and Michigan are both undefeated and they are two and three in the poll. What chance do you give one of losing and still making the playoff? They are both very good at the metrics on the team sheet that are statistical right of all the teams in the country.

There are only a couple that truly have that balance that Boo Corrigan talked about. Ohio State Georgia and Michigan have offenses and defenses that both rank, you know, up in the top 10 top 15 top 25 nationally. You know, you got USC which has one of the best offenses in the country and the USC defense. And by the way, this is we we can talk about the USC UCLA thing another time or you can go and download the podcast. But USC's defense is as bad as North Carolina's.

You can look at some good either, right? You can look at some teams that are really good on defense, but they've got some of the like NC State's offense is number 107 in the country. Yeah, in terms of teams in the top 25 of the current college football playoff rankings. No one's offense rates worse on a yards for play basis than NC States.

So that is a deserved honor. I think I think in state is a better team than NC State. And I think that Ohio State and Michigan are getting the benefit of the doubt not just because of being Ohio State and Michigan their strength of schedule rankings are not good. But even opponent adjusted metrics which are not included in the team sheets.

They agree with the team sheet statistics, right? No one else is as balanced and as elite on both sides of the ball as Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. I'm not arguing that and I guess with so little data so few data points because we don't have enough games and there's not enough crossover and so many schools waste non-conference games against absolute Michigan. I mean who was the best non-conference game they played? Was it Connecticut? Was that the best non-conference game they played? Hey, that is UConn knocking on the door a bowl eligibility Huskies. That's why I said Connecticut. That's why I said UConn was the best non-conference game they played. So all of those things to me are schedule dependent and this is the classic classic don't play anybody and your league because you're all playing each other looks better.

It's to me it's just it's it's a self-fulfilling prophecy of making those metrics appear better than they really are. I've seen Michigan. Michigan does does what they need to do right now. They did they blow out Rutgers. Yeah, they blew out Rutgers. I also watched Ohio State score 21 points and have to rally at Northwestern.

Yes. Was it windy? It was also windy for Northwestern like Ohio State should have dominated that game in bad weather, but they didn't. So look I think all of these things we can make we can look at stats and the last I checked all you have to do is win which is what Boo Corrigan said about TCU. They just managed to figure out a way to win. I don't know.

I just all of these things seem to change. I think if TCU finds itself where it is a one loss Big 12 champion and the Ohio State Michigan loser is an 11 and 1 non-Big 10 champion. It will be it will be an incredible test of how much they value conference championships if that is the debate if it is a one loss pack 12 champion against the Ohio State Michigan loser if it is a one loss Big 12 champion which will only be TCU against the Ohio State Michigan loser that becomes a fasten if a one loss North Carolina or a one loss Clemson is going up against the Ohio State Michigan loser becomes a fascinating test of the original document produced in the first year the college football playoff which said conference championships would be valued by the committee should be the committee's credit that very first season they fulfilled the tenants of that document. I'm not so sure they would do it again.

Maybe not. Let's what but we're going to talk about it. We're going to talk about Clemson not so much Alabama LSU and North Carolina and what their chances are going forward with Chip Patterson plus I have a golf matter for you.

Chip Patterson cover three podcast more next. Hold on one second. That is my Oscar Meyer wiener whistle. It was the wiener mobile was here.

So they gave these out. I'm so sad. I missed it. Yes, gigantic.

You should have seen it. All right. Let's sorry bigger in person right. Yes. Yeah.

Also depends on the angle from from which you're what you're looking at and I couldn't I honestly couldn't lift it. So Clemson eliminated themselves Saturday night. Maybe Alabama absolutely did with the loss to LSU. But I heard a debate on the cover three podcast about the potential and I you were not arguing that LSU would but you were simply arguing that LSU could with two losses be in the playoff conversation and I agree simply because the wins that they have or and they they would have by the end of the season would be too big to ignore that they would still probably need help like they wouldn't mean they might not get in over a one loss Clemson or maybe even over a one loss North Carolina probably would but I don't know or if Southern Cal or Oregon were to win the pack 12 with one loss, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that LSU is in the playoff if they're eleven and two and Florida State is surging. So right suddenly quality loss and you mentioned the wins because all this does come down to the fact that the committee would look at LSU and they would say that this you know first year coach this transfer quarterback. It took them a while to get it going.

They would apply the same kind of logic that they do much improved right. Yeah, it seems to deal with injuries, you know teams that find a new stride at the back half of the season but in the scenario where LSU is a two loss team when we wake up on selection Sunday that would be a team that has wins against Georgia Alabama and Ole Miss and at this point in the season all three of those teams are going to be in the top 20 of the final college football playoff rankings and if Georgia is still the number one team in the college football playoff rankings and loses to LSU then yeah, we will make history because Penn State's problem in 2016 when they were a two loss team left out of the college football playoff. They were a two loss Big 10 champion left out of the college football playoff.

Their problem was that while Wisconsin the team that they beat in the Big 10 championship was good ranked number six in the country at the time Penn State was number eight. They weren't number one right if LSU wins out the rest of the way and again same with the TCU angle to this. We are speaking in hypotheticals as LSU is only a three-point favorite at Arkansas this weekend still has to play a good UAB team at home and then on the road against Texas A&M which while they've got the transfer portal flu right now. I have no idea what kind of hilarity we might see from the Aggies at the end of the season, but Georgia Alabama and Ole Miss it's a very very good resume Tennessee not going to fall out of the top 10 top 15 in the college football playoff rankings in Florida State continues to win and continues to surge. I just I think that that LSU team even with two losses as the SEC champion is not going to get left out.

You say is not good. I see I think could but I think if they are the SEC champion, I think they have a chance like I find it hard to believe if George is undefeated when they get there and they sure they're going to be then George is a lock to get in and I think they could lose to LSU and still get in and LSU also still not get in. Oh man that would that would test our conference championship theory, but but the conference championship isn't an all-encompassing thing. It doesn't guarantee you anything.

What it does is it's just one of the criteria and it's something they pay attention to. I don't think George is getting left out regardless if they're undefeated when they get there. I think they're they're not going to go from one to five unless I mean unless LSU just runs them and I don't mean again is it happening right we do all these hypotheticals. We try to test the committee, but we also watch football every single Saturday. We study these teams. Georgia is awesome. I just told you on the other side that there's only three teams in the country that are evenly balanced a lead on both sides of the ball and Georgia is one of them.

You put out all the different graphs and over and you know the top right hand corner is where the goods are. Yeah. And we're just not only in the top right hand corner.

They're far away from everybody else. They're they're they're the best team which is why I don't think they're getting left out regardless and even if even if LSU beats them, I I think Georgia will go and I think they could go and LSU could not either way. I would love to see this conversation take place because it would be fun. But let me ask you about this is either Clemson or North Carolina. Clemson and UNC show up in Charlotte as eleven and one teams.

Give me a give me a scenario or just your chance your thoughts on the winner being part of the four. You need to have the pack twelve and the Big 12 cannibalize itself. You need to have a scenario where either TCU's losses in the regular season prior to the Big 12 championship game and or the championship game result which by the way would be earlier in the day. We would know it by kickoff of the ACC championship game as have eliminated the chances of a one loss or undefeated Big 12 champion.

You would probably also need. I think you would probably also need the pack twelve to be in a scenario where you don't have where the conference champion is going to have two losses and maybe they don't even have another one loss team that everybody in the pack twelve has two losses. I say that because Oregon is currently sitting at number six because USC incredibly overrated as they are sitting at number eight and UCLA and as underrated as they are are currently at number twelve while UCLA and USC still have quality opportunities against each other left on the schedule in addition to the game at the end of the season the pack twelve championship.

So you basically need to get the pack twelve and the Big 12 out the paint so that the conference champion is going to be a two loss team. Then we start to at least entertain the possibility that the Clemson North Carolina winner would be able to get in ahead of a Tennessee team that has one loss to Georgia and has been sitting on the couch championship Saturday after pasting three lesser opponents to close out the regular season and I think that that would be the debate. It would be your Ohio State Michigan loser and it would be Tennessee and whatever happens literally like between now and that ACC championship game in addition to the ACC championship game itself that would determine how much of a chance they have.

That is the scenario though. I think we could we could have really stopped after the pack twelve Big 12 discussion right Tennessee is definitely going to go if if if if there isn't a reason to leave them out if they're eleven and one with those two with the two wins that they've got LSU and Alabama that's more than enough unless Alabama suddenly loses a bunch of games or maybe LSU loses a bunch of games there or they're going. But if NC State wins until North Carolina, North Carolina wins out Clemson wins out Notre Dame wins out.

Right Florida State wins out with a win over Florida. Now all of a sudden you're looking at a North Carolina team that is in the top ten of the college football playoff when they meet NC State that's probably in the top 15 of the playoff rankings after potentially losing to North Carolina Notre Dame is probably a top 15 team maybe better maybe a top 12 team if they were to beat Southern Southern Cal Florida even once named Notre Dame have trouble getting up to 12 but I'm okay. Top 15 top 15 same thing with Florida State you know top 20 team if Clemson's got three wins and a quality loss where is it on my bingo card quality loss lower left hand corner if they have three wins and a quality loss mean that's worth something if they pay attention to their own rankings because I agree with you. I think the committee uses the rankings to justify things. Yeah, I mean it's one of the stats rankings versus CFP top 10. Yeah, right. First CFP top 25.

They they create their own rankings and then they use that to help them as a sorting tool. Sure, which I don't mind. I don't mind. I mean, I don't necessarily disagree with that. So you think Tennessee is in if Big 12 and Pac 12 are out along with we assume Georgia and then it would be a debate with the Ohio State Michigan winner Ohio State Michigan winner, Georgia the loser against the ACC champion in the scenario that you painted. Yeah, if the if the Big 12 and Pac 12 are out then Ohio State Michigan winner Tennessee Georgia and potentially a 12 and 1 ACC champion and actually almost give North Carolina a better chance than Clemson. But so we had a real bad question today where someone said and does it help North Carolina's case if Drake may as a Heisman candidate and my answer according to Boo Corrigan himself is yes because they asked him about USC and he was like well, you kill Williams has 28 touchdowns quarterback who's on a roll.

Apparently our committee is going to look at you back. Well, we got to give you a shot at the National Championship because you've got a star quarterback. Clemson doesn't have a star quarterback. North Carolina has a star quarterback. North Carolina has an explosive offense. Clemson is in kind of like both category defensively. They're still very good but even defensively because they're having to carry so much weight from a putrid offense.

They're starting to their numbers be hurt just a little bit. Yeah, I I'm first of all wake is favored by three and a half this weekend. I like Carolina beating NC State is going to be very difficult. We are going through the same routine where it's like, yeah, they're just going to win out and NC State's just going to win out. It's like Clemson could lose to South Carolina. I thought you said last week Clemson wasn't going to lose to South Carolina.

That's a what I saw. That coaching staff had two weeks to prepare for an offense that was going to do one thing. I know here's here's the thing that the block punt for a touchdown destroyed him.

They never recover from that the the my problem with Clemson for the last several years really hasn't even had anything to do with the quarterback. I mean DJ is fine. He's not great. The people calling for them to make a change a quarterback haven't watched Cade club Nick play. He's not doing anything when he's on the court points for the other team. I mean I don't even understand like why are we complaining about DJ?

Did you watch what Cade did so? Clemson's offensive line hasn't been good enough in like four years. I don't think the schemes good either scheme or not.

They're just not open. Will Shipley is a great back and he looks just like a guy because they can't block. There's just never room like they didn't even run the ball at the end of the Travis Etienne era. They weren't running the ball. They were getting him the ball on the on the on the edges in space. That's it. So it's very slow developing.

Everything's very clunky. The wide receivers can't get separation and not good either. It's it is wildly disappointing because the ACC saw its football pedigree raised because of the Clemson Tigers. It's football reputation boosted by the success of the Clemson Tigers and I do not think that it was all quarterback. But I do think that the innovations that were made starting with Chad Morris and the skill talent they were able to recruit to that program from two thousand eleven all the way to two thousand eighteen two thousand nineteen. I do think that we're now three seasons later and the game has started to move on and that if you continue to do internal promotions and not bring in outside ideas then you're not going to have somebody say hey okay. Well well what about this that worked at this other school that I was at. If everybody's only worked at Clemson or in high schools in the state of South Carolina then you are not changing things up a little bit.

It's it's extremely disappointing. Almost sounds like we're talking about Duke football for a second. Real quick Tiger Woods. Forget about playing the match with Rory against Justin Thomas and Jordan Speith. Tiger is going to play the hero world challenge. And of course the fifth major the PNC championship with Charlie.

Which which event are you most interested in watching. Oh the hero. For sure. I want to see Charlie. Charlie's my guy. Maybe if if one or both of my young sons take to golf in a way where the father's son hits me a little bit harder that then that'll be there.

I don't care about the father's son. Our golf clubs are only used more like hockey pucks. Until we start to like slow things down. One last thing on the playoff. I forget the expand the playoff conversation. My abolish the playoff take will never be stronger than if we get Georgia in a playoff that includes Tennessee and Oregon because guess what you want to settle it on the field.

They did. They played them both in the regular season and you beat them. Look I've been I've been saying you want more diversity in the playoff. Go back to two. Forget 12. Go back to two.

We'll get more diversity. All right. Chip Patterson. You're the man. It's my my wiener whistle. It sounds fantastic. Sounds good. Great. You'll be well. Take care.

Here on the Adam Gold Show. It's a it's an unassuming unoffensive whistle. I know. It's not too bad. It's a little it's just a little wiener. It's all it is. Man. That's all it is. All right. It's half time. Statements.
Whisper: small.en / 2022-11-09 18:08:38 / 2022-11-09 18:15:17 / 7

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