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Goldman Sachs Bank USA member FDIC. Good morning. I'm Lee Cowan, and this is a very different Sunday morning. For starters, I'm filling in for Jane Pauley from Los Angeles because the coronavirus outbreak has limited our ability to use our New York studios. Jane is just fine by the way. And this broadcast won't exactly look like your customary Sunday morning.

We're all pretty much working from home just like the rest of America. And our problems pale by comparison to the thousands of Americans already suffering from the virus. We'll begin this morning with the latest from Dr. John Lapook. Then the subject is fear. That most visceral of human reactions is front and center in times like this.

Not surprisingly, fear is the subject of a school of research all of its own, as we'll be hearing from David Poe in our cover store. Coronavirus fear is normal, even healthy, right up to the point when it gets dangerous. Most of us don't have the expert knowledge. And so when we feel afraid, we engage in behaviors like putting on a mask that may not work. The fear is biasing our judgments in ways that aren't useful.

The rational and irrational responses to an invisible threat ahead on Sunday morning. Much as we might not want to think about it, a rapid increase in coronavirus cases could soon force doctors to make extremely difficult medical and ethical choices, as we'll be hearing from Ted Koff. Hospitals are desperately short of ventilators, and as the number of COVID-19 patients rises, that will lead to some hard decisions. So you've got me in your hospital, and you've got a 22-year-old, and both of us need that piece of equipment. Who gets it? I think by most, the younger person would be assigned that ventilator. Well, I mean, look into the camera and tell me, Ted, you die.

Yeah, that's the issue. Who lives, who dies ahead on Sunday morning? Rest assured we are not devoting our entire broadcast to tidings of disease and economic distress. Pop star Alicia Keys is releasing a new book, Just in Time for Spring, and she's talking about it with our Tracey Smith. Alicia Keys has always seemed fearless, but she never really felt that way until she finally learned to slow down. How has it changed how you live your life? It's great. I think it's changed how I live my life a lot. Some insight on taking a little time for ourselves, especially now that we all have to.

Alicia Keys, later on Sunday morning. Business correspondent Jill Schlesinger adds up the many ways our economic life has changed in this very short, unsettling period of time. Seth Doan has a most unusual, postcard from Italy. Mo Rocca takes us to ground zero for this and every other epidemic in American history. New York's Bellevue Hospital, plus suggestions on some distractions worth considering while you're homebound. And more, all coming up when our Sunday Morning podcast continues. So where do things stand this Sunday morning with this virus disrupting all of our lives?

First things first, here's Dr. John Lapook. I know this is an unsettling time. Nobody likes to feel out of control.

I know I don't. But there are things we can do together to help slow this outbreak, and it all centers right in the middle of the pandemic. And that's what we're going to do. We're going to do it together.

We're going to do it together. But there are things we can do together to help slow this outbreak. And it all centers around the concept of flattening the curve. Now, what do I mean by that? Early on in an epidemic, you see a spike in cases.

You see it here in yellow. And when that happens, a healthcare system can get totally overwhelmed. Not enough health professionals, not enough hospital beds, not enough medical equipment.

But if you can somehow do something to flatten that curve, to just delay it, you see it here in purple, then maybe the system won't get that huge pressure on your back. What do you do to do that? Well, it centers around things you've been hearing. Things like proper hygiene. Wash your hands for 20 seconds.

If you have to cough or sneeze, cough into a tissue or the crook of your arm. And then there's this social distancing. That basically just means staying away from each other.

Is there evidence that it works? Absolutely. In places like China, South Korea, we're seeing it work. But in order for it to work, we have to all do it together. We have to all do it everywhere. And we have to do it right now.

Not in a month. We may still be doing it in a month, but absolutely right now. Now, we know that the most vulnerable population are people who are elderly, people with serious underlying conditions.

But now we've learned in the last week that people in their 20s, 30s and 40s can also get very ill. And even if they don't get very sick, they can have mild symptoms or even no symptoms and infect others. This is no time to be selfish. You have to think about your parents, your grandparents, and we have to listen to our public health officials and absolutely follow their advice to the letter no exceptions. Now, at a time like this, I worry about when we're distancing ourselves physically from each other.

How do we stay together emotionally? There ever was a time to pick up the phone and just contact somebody else? It's now. Think about in your community.

Are there people out there in nursing homes and other places that you could call? And we have to think out of the box. When Broadway theaters were closed, my friends, producer James Wesley and his husband, musician Seth Rudetsky said the show must go on. So they've been live streaming performances by Broadway stars and other entertainers right from their homes.

Last week was opening night with Tony Award winner Kelli O'Hara. But I'm stuck like a dope with a thing called hope and I can't get it out of my heart. And finally, I just want to remind people that even though this is a very bumpy road, it will have a beginning, a middle and an end. Remember, about 80 percent of cases are relatively mild.

There are lots of really smart people everywhere around the globe who are working on this, trying to come up with vaccines and drugs. We are going to get through this. It's going to be a bumpy ride, but we're going to get through it together. Fear. It's a basic, truly primal instinct. Proof? The way most of us feel right now.

And it, too, is contagious. Our cover story this morning is reported by David Pogue. Julie Beitman has been my friend and neighbor for over 15 years, but I've never seen her like this. I'm very upset about this. I'm upset. I watched the news around the clock and that's all I think about. Has it brought you to tears?

It has. Like everybody else, she's doing everything in her power to avoid getting infected by the 2020 coronavirus. I've never touched a doorknob or a handle. My boots are all worn out on the toe.

You're flushing toilets with your foot. Always. Always. Oh, here's your bunker. Like so many other Americans, Julie has stocked up on supplies. She's even made her own stylish face masks. That'll protect me.

It'll cover from the top to the bottom. Even before the coronavirus was considered a pandemic, Julie was taking all the rational, recommended steps. But fear is also making people do irrational things, sometimes dangerous things. Somebody is going to get hurt. Panic buying toilet paper. Attacking people just for looking Asian. This is amazing.

Buying unproven home remedies and considering gargling with bleach. But we are supposed to be the rational animal. We're supposed to be the rational animal, but there's a lot going on in your head that's kind of under your conscious radar. David Disteno is a psychology professor at Northeastern University who studied how fear can drive us batty. Under what circumstances do our brains run away with the fear? So they run away with the fear if we don't have accurate information, like that guy over there on the subway, he looks like he's going to sneeze and like he's sweaty. Does he have the coronavirus or not?

I don't know. When you don't know the information, it gives a lot more range for your emotions to fill in the blank. Right. So Mr. Spock from Star Trek, he would have an accurate assessment of the virus risk.

Yes, he would have an accurate assessment of the virus risk. The stress circuit is really there to biologically and mentally, physically help us respond to stress and to help us adapt and survive in the world. Rajita Sinha is a Yale psychiatry professor and director of the Yale Interdisciplinary Stress Center. She says that three factors can make fear spiral out of control. The first is if it is unpredictable. Right. Right. And the second is if it's uncontrollable.

Okay. And the third is if it's sustained and chronic. So how then does this virus fit into these three categories? Yes. So unfortunately, we have all three classes of problematic stress. You mentioned this issue of control. So is there a sense that some of the wilder things that people are doing, gargling with bleach, spraying Chinese looking people on the subway, are people trying to get controlled? Absolutely.

We go to the extreme sometimes to gain control, to have a sense that we can do something about it. I took a lot of naps. I played on my phone. I just, whatever, killed time best I could. Mark Jorgensen was a passenger on the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that quarantined its passengers for two weeks in Japan. So how was your cruise?

Yeah. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? At some point, Mark and his wife got the virus. He's now quarantined at his home in St. George, Utah. I have never had and continue to not have any symptoms.

Not even slight cold symptoms, nothing. But Jorgensen and his wife have experienced irrational fear in another form. Hostile comments online from other people. What sorts of things were people saying out there?

Just, let's find out where he is and go get him and let's, you know, don't you dare come back to St. George and you'll regret it if you come to St. George. They were threatening you guys? With the amount of fear this had generated, I should have known that some people would be fearful and often the way people react to fear is to get angry. Now, we can't help what we feel. Our brains evolved to respond to dangers that we sense around us. But Disteno says that we're now sensing danger around the clock. Breaking news on coronavirus. On our screens.

I'm not saying that's a bad thing. We want to be informed, but we kind of need a software update, right? Our brain hasn't evolved to be able to adjust for what we're seeing in the media versus what's really in our local media. Versus what's really in our local environment.

Unfortunately, she did die. Right. Of course, it doesn't help that virus movies like Contagion and Outbreak.

If one of them's got it, then ten of them got it now. There will be panic, the likes of which we have never seen. Have painted a horrific picture in our minds and social media like Facebook and Twitter only make matters worse. The other thing we know about emotions is they're contagious. On social media, everybody's talking about the threat of coronavirus. Not only am I going to think that that's more frequent, but I'm going to see that fear as a rational signal from them. And it's going to make me want to respond accordingly. Dr. Albert Koh is the department chair of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health.

I asked him to help us distinguish rational responses from the irrational ones. So, can you get it from a package sent from China? No. Okay. Can you get it from sweat?

No. All right. And just the last thing, ways to kill it. Soap and water? Soap and water is the best.

Okay. Hand sanitizer? Hand sanitizer, but it has to have more than 60% alcohol. How about antibiotics? No, certainly not. So, this is a virus.

Antibiotics work against fungi and bacteria, so antibiotics won't work. Remember, stress, anxiety, and fear can be useful. They can drive us to taking healthy actions. The trick is to recognize when our fear has gone off the rails and become dangerous. Because, as Professor DeCeno says, right now, we're in a perfect storm, because we all feel anxious because of what we're seeing. But most of us can't think like epidemiologists.

Most of us can't think statistically. And so, that fear is filling in the blanks and making us think everything is more dangerous. Perhaps no country has been hit harder by COVID-19 than Italy. Home to Sunday morning's Seth Dell.

He's prepared what may be our most unusual Sunday morning postcard ever. First, we watched Wuhan empty its streets, and it felt so far away. Then, it was the canals of Venice and the piazzas of Rome, empty too. Now, across the world, the odd concept of quarantine has become surprisingly familiar. My husband, Andrea, and I have been locked in for nearly two weeks in Rome. The health authorities have called.

They say they're about 15 minutes away. They're on their way to give me a test. I've been keeping a journal on my phone after being exposed and then testing positive for the coronavirus. Well, I got the news tonight that I was hoping not to get. For me, the symptoms have been manageable, which is fortunate.

A country where hospital systems have been overwhelmed, doctors have been forced to prioritize patients in the ICU, and funeral announcements have filled newspapers. I'm not worried about my health. I'm dealing with it OK. I'm relatively young. I'll be fine.

But this idea of possibly passing it along is the worst. Like so many around the world now, we stay in, working from home, relying on the kindness of others. Our neighbor went shopping for us. It's very sweet of him. Italians who invented opera have again come up with a musical distraction fitting for our time. This is becoming a very cool evening tradition.

Singing from a safe distance, filling empty streets and squares with a little levity and sound. In all of this unpleasantness, it's great. You think of all these people in these big cities around Italy, cooped up at home, and it's something to look forward to. Amid this unimaginable tragedy, they've found humor and have highlighted the gastronomic possibilities of quarantine. Our foodie cameraman shares meals virtually. In this country, which has been shut down, aperitivo is now by video chat. Dinner is, too, as we search for ways to keep our human connection.

With fatalities here mounting by the hour, this virus is reminding us of what's important, the chance to step out on a terrace on a sunny day. And this being Italy, the doctor following our case has promised to cook us dinner when this is all over. We move on now to your financial well-being. As you well know, that's yet another scary reality for many of us in recent weeks. We've asked our Jill Schlesinger to calm the waters, or try to. At Kansas Delicatessen on New York's Lower East Side, they've been slicing the corned beef and pastrami for 132 years. Listen, we've gone through everything, right?

We've seen depressions and hurricanes and blackouts and terrorist attacks, and we've been here through all that. We've never closed. But now the chairs are stacked on the tables.

Katz's, like most restaurants across the country, is prohibited from seating diners. So the bagels and blintzes are only available to go. I gotta go bring to my 93-year-old mother-in-law.

Good luck. Jake Del is the third generation owner of Katz's. He's desperately trying to keep his 200 workers busy, and more importantly, to keep paying them. Waiters, for example, are doing deliveries or working on crowd control. You know, I have bus boys that I obviously don't need to clean tables right now, so I'm having them do prep work. Basically, everyone is an all-hands-on-deck, and we take it one day at a time. Alfredo Fernandez has put his knife to work at Katz's for 14 years. I'm concerned, though a lot of people want to go with our jobs.

If it happens, you know, we just gotta, you just gotta stick together and try to help each other out for this. At least Katz's is still open. As the global economy enters an unprecedented shutdown, just look around.

Major league sports have left the field. Factories and shopping malls are shuttered. The lights have gone dark on Broadway, and the curtain has come down for Manhattan's independent theaters, like the Magnet Theater. I'm sitting here in an empty theater, and it's empty every night. We're shut down. New York City is shut down. Actor Ed Herbstman co-founded the Magnet, which is dedicated to improv.

He remembers the good old days, like a week and a half ago. We were booming 35 to 40 shows a week, back to back each night. The Magnet has 50 employees, but the damage goes beyond those 50.

There's a web of companies and workers that supply everything from utilities to t-shirts to beer. They'll all feel the impact of the theater's closing. I'm worried about the future of this place. Well, I'm worried about the future of the city. If you look back on your life, you've lived through a lot of different shaky economic periods.

Can you tell me how this period feels to you today versus what you've seen in the past? Oh, to me, I think this is the most nerve-wracking. Joseph Stiglitz won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001 and is a professor at Columbia University. This is totally different where we're shutting down the economy to protect our health. Stiglitz believes that the pre-virus economy was one where too many were left exposed, where both families and businesses alike were at risk if conditions soured. Before the event, many of our households were living at the edge. The average amount in the bank, you know, 50%, 70% of Americans have is 500-odd thousand dollars. On the other side, businesses have been really foolish taking on debt as if no storm's ever going to hit.

We always know that there's going to be some storms. That's been really, really foolish. We pushed the idea of efficiency in a narrow-minded sense too far. We've run our whole economy that way. No extra hospital beds. Fine, as long as you don't have a crisis like the current one.

We developed a system without resilience in which we left large numbers of Americans extraordinarily vulnerable. As the health pandemic becomes an economic pandemic, the world is waiting for governments to respond. Here in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to near zero to help consumers and businesses access cheaper loans. And it's also taking actions to keep the nation's financial plumbing unclogged. At the same time, the Trump administration and Congress are nearing an agreement to make half a trillion dollars available to help large corporations and small businesses.

And there's another half a trillion dollars for households amounting to one to three thousand dollars depending on the size of the family and income level. Stiglitz says it's a start. The idea of sending checks to people, not a one-time event. You are advocating something different.

Can you explain? Well, if we knew this was going to be a three-week event, a one-time check would be fine. It gets us over the hump and we're on. But the epidemiologists are not sure how long it's going to take. The best estimate is months. And that means a lot of people really are anxious. And knowing that if this crisis lasts for three months, there'll be another check. A thousand dollars for three months?

Come on. So we really need to give them the assurance that as long as this lasts, there'll be a check coming. Should we be concerned at all about spending this money now?

The answer is no. I mean, when we went to World War II, we didn't ask, could we afford it? We had to do it. We need to do it. Can we afford it?

Yes, we have enormous resources. So are your clients freaking out right now, Michael? Well, some of our clients are definitely on edge.

Michael Goodman is the president of Wealthstream Advisors, a financial planning and investment management firm. I mean, this is a pretty scary time, of course, and you would never want to discount that. There are clients, however, I'm surprised to see that are anxious to put some money into the market. Wall Street has lost. It's been a frightening ride for investors.

Stocks have plunged more than 30 percent over the past five weeks, ending the longest bull market on record. But despite the market turmoil, Goodman says that even for a person nearing retirement, now is not the time to panic and get out. If I'm 60 years old and I plan on retiring when I'm 70, should I make any changes in the account right now? If you're 60 and you're not going to be retiring for another 10 years in these times, there's this temptation to make adjustments. As scary as this is, as much as we don't know the bottom to this market, average recovery is typically somewhere around 24 months. Whether you're an investor or not, Goodman says now is an important moment to take stock of your financial situation.

I think the thing that people should be focusing on right now is making sure that they understand what their personal obligations are over the next several months so that they feel that they can get through that. This will pass. There will be damage because of it. And we will rebuild and grow back. We've done this before.

I don't fully fit under the bed. I do. Back at the Magnet Theater, they're trying to get through it all by experimenting, like some of their big league colleagues, with putting performances online. The theater dedicated to improv is, well, improvising, as we all are. What we do is we train people to deal with the fact that everything is uncertain. It's improvising. We're constantly saying calm down, take a breath.

Don't try to plan. Try to react. And now we're doing that for real in real life. This is Intelligence Matters with former acting director of the CIA, Michael Morell. Bridge Colby is co-founder and principal of the Marathon Initiative, a project focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition. The United States put our mind to something we can usually figure it out. What people are saying and what we kind of know analytically and empirically is our strategic situation, our military situation is not being matched up with what we're doing.

Follow Intelligence Matters wherever you get your podcasts. Our hospitals are, of course, on the front lines during this pandemic, and perhaps no hospital has seen more for a longer period of time than the legendary Bellevue Hospital in New York City. Our history lesson comes from Mo Rocca. Bellevue, in many ways, is an eerie place. It's an eerie place because the ghosts are everywhere. This is a hospital that goes back three centuries. Every immigrant group has come through with every imaginable disease. If you want to tell the story of America through its chronology of health crises, then there's no better setting than Bellevue Hospital. The Irish come first and they allegedly bring with them cholera and typhus. Then the Germans and the Jews come and tuberculosis becomes the big disease.

Pulitzer Prize winner David Oshinsky is the author of a book about the storied New York City hospital. This is a tuberculosis balcony and here were the famous Bellevue TB wards and the belief was that fresh air would help. You would have dozens of dozens of people out at one time.

They'd be here in the snow. And in the 1980s, Bellevue Hospital was ground zero during the AIDS epidemic. More patients with AIDS come to Bellevue and more patients with AIDS die at Bellevue Hospital.

And the treatment of AIDS patients is a story of struggle and heroism and eventually helping to turn a deadly disease into a treatable one. With COVID-19 patients expected to fill the city's hospitals, Bellevue and its doctors will once again be on the front lines. That Bellevue has confronted so many crises isn't surprising.

Founded in the 1730s, it's America's oldest public hospital, meaning all are welcome regardless of condition or ability to pay. Bellevue turns no one away. I mean that has always been the mantra of Bellevue Hospital and they come to Bellevue knowing that they will be treated and they will be welcomed. And it's because Bellevue has always taken in the worst of the worst cases that it's drawn the best of the best in medicine. Consider the case of Alexander Anderson, Bellevue's first doctor. In the six weeks of the great yellow fever epidemic, Alexander Anderson lost his son to yellow fever, his wife to yellow fever, his mother and father and brother to yellow fever, and he largely stayed the course because he believed it was God's will that he helped these people. And to me, Alexander Anderson is really not only Bellevue's first doctor, but he sets down the notion and the ethos of compassion.

Dr. Susan Cohen, the current director of palliative care at Bellevue, carries on that tradition. You see every emotion, every facet of the human condition that you can imagine and it's humbling. As a result of the tumbling. As is the scale of the place. There's a diner, there's a school, there's a court, there's a jail, there's a hospital, there's everything is in the walls of Bellevue. Bellevue was the first hospital to have a civilian ambulance corps.

They were light, they were horse driven, they could move at incredible speed. Bellevue's story can also be told through a remarkable run of medical milestones. It had the first nursing school, the first departments of forensics and pediatrics, the first maternity ward. If I may, Bellevue is on the cutting edge when it comes to circumcision. It is. Lewis Sayre really did the first medical circumcisions.

These were obscure religious rituals until this time. Yet for all its breakthroughs, Bellevue became infamous for its psychiatric wing, the very name a byword for insanity. That's because of this woman. Nellie Bly was the great daredevil female reporter. She was the one who when Jules Verne wrote Around the World in 80 Days, Nellie Bly went Around the World in 76 Days. Bly was writing for Joseph Pulitzer's New York World when she went undercover in 1887 to report on the city's psychiatric hospitals. Nellie Bly made like she was crazy. She basically had a fake breakdown. The judge sent her to Bellevue Hospital.

From there she was sent to a state mental hospital on Blackwell's Island where the treatment she witnessed was barbaric, chronicled in 10 Days in a Madhouse, a sensational expose that became a best-selling book. Once that comes out, Bellevue in the public mind is really linked almost forever with insanity and mental illness. Bellevue became a punchline, as in this clip from The Honeymooners. And I'm calling Bellevue because you're nuts!

Where to? Bellevue. And at the movies, Bellevue was where Kris Kringle was sent in Miracle on 34th Street. And a host of real-life writers and artists spent time in the hospital psych ward. Oh Henry.

Oh Henry sent to Bellevue. Stephen Foster. My old Kentucky home Stephen Foster.

That is correct. Lead Belly. Blues legend Lead Belly even wrote a song about his stay at the hospital. I was lying down one morning in Bellevue. I saw Miss John. She must have been a nurse.

She was new. It's so long. And singer John Lennon was brought here after he was shot along with his assassin. In one of the great ironies of the story, Mark Chapman was being examined by psychiatrists probably a hundred feet away from where John Lennon's body was in in the morgue. But it was the 1989 murder at Bellevue of Dr. Catherine Hinnant that shook the institution to its core. A homeless man who had been living illegally in Bellevue hospital killed a pregnant pathologist in her office and it caused an absolute furor and Bellevue really had to decide at that moment are we a hospital that provides emergency services to everybody or are we a bus station. In the end security was ramped up and Bellevue did not abandon its mission as a public hospital.

Dr. Susan Cohen has been at the hospital for 12 years. I love the people. I love the patients and I love the mission. You have to want to be here to be here.

If it's not the right fit for you you shouldn't be here. Bellevue remains important because it is the bellwether. It is the place that takes in people who can often go nowhere else and if they have a medical issue it will be taken care of with great care and compassion. Over the course of the morning we have some ideas about ways to fill all those hours we're spending homebound. We begin with movies. Lots of movies.

David Edelstein has just the tape. Hi. Hello. I'm at a theater because it's empty because they all are which is my subject. You're at home climbing the walls and you can't go out to the movies. The good news is look when I was a kid you had six channels.

One of them was all candle pins for cash. Now you can scream anything on demand. So we have a virus with no treatment protocol and no vaccine at this time. People I know are watching pandemic movies. Contagion.

Outbreak. Don't. Just don't. You should have watched them in January when you could have done something.

Maybe. Now you're just torturing yourself. But this does raise an issue which is do you want to escape the world or use this occasion when you have time and social distance to learn a little more about how the world actually is. Yeah me too I want to escape but there's only so many times I can watch Step Brothers. So I watched Turner Classic Movies, TCM, and I got a subscription to the Criterion Channel. Gorgeously restored world classics.

Fellini. Chaplin's City Lights. Or Ingmar Bergman's little-known masterpiece Shame with Lee Vollman and the great Max von Sydow who just left us which shows how war and its terrors can make us less than human.

So we'll try so much harder to be more. You can binge of course. Catch up on Better Call Saul or Star Trek Card which I love to bits though Patrick Stewart's Jean-Luc has gotten a tad mushy in his old age. It's on CBS All Access which I pay for by the way like you do and it's a lot every month. Amazon and Hulu and Netflix.

I've had to switch to cheaper brands of booze but what I get to watch is so much more exciting. You got a close relationship with her Miss Kilburn? Excuse me? I love seeing films like Lost Girls on Netflix about the messed up investigation of a Long Island serial killer with Amy Ryan exceptionally fine as the desperate mother of a vanished woman.

I have a talent for holding grudges and unless you help me I'm gonna raise more hell than you can handle. What about the big fast food franchise movies? Postponed.

Daters that we're supposed to show a quiet place to will be really quiet. But more and more smaller maybe worthier first run films will soon be streamable. This week Universal put out three The Invisible Man, The Hunt and one that's actually worth it Emma. Jane Austen's 19th century heroine is played by the marvelous Anya Taylor-Joy whose wide apart eyes make it look as if her thoughts are traveling across hemispheres perfect for a young woman who knows everything until she realizes she knows nothing. She learns empathy which we all need right now and we will find. Perhaps with the help of works of art like these we will come out wiser more human and yes more neurotic.

The other day I swear I was watching a movie where a guy coughed and I flinched and I'd have wiped off the screen with sanitizer if I had any. One way or another the pressure shows. Who lives and who dies? In this time of medical crisis it's hardly an academic question and it's something Sunday morning senior contributor Ted Koppel has been pondering. These are dark times escalating demands diminishing resources to get a sense of where we may be headed we have only to look at Italy.

Theirs is one of the oldest populations in the world which partially explains a death rate that is now close to 10 percent. In the north Lombardy the medical system is all but overwhelmed. Too few hospital beds, not enough gowns, masks, a desperate shortage of ventilators.

You've seen what's happened and what continues to happen in Italy right now. Dr. Maria Raven is chief of emergency medicine at the University of California San Francisco hospital. You've got me on one gurney and you've got a 25 year old on another gurney. You've only got one ventilator for the two of us. Who gets the ventilator? That's a very tough question. I mean I think the answer that we would use if we were to follow principles from a specialty like transplant is that people that have more life years might get the the ventilator but there are also many other sort of principles that could underlie the decision makings. You know you have to take into consideration underlying illnesses that people might have and you also have to take into consideration if there are other temporizing measures that you could use in one person so that maybe you after all you wouldn't have to need a ventilator immediately.

Maria, Maria, Maria, you're tap dancing. All right, I mean I can, this is a tough question. I mean I don't want to necessarily speak for UCSF on this because they haven't put out their guidelines yet. I mean I think, yeah.

No, I'm sorry to interrupt you. When are they planning to put out the guidelines? What are they waiting for?

Well, they're there any day actually. The clinical working group is working on them right now. These are terrible decisions to leave in the hands of doctors on the front lines, the ones actually treating patients. Well, there are certain situations relatively few, thank goodness, that are catastrophic events that entirely overwhelm our ability to to do what's right. Haiti was one of those. Dr. Thomas Kirsch is an emergency physician sounding the alarm. He is afraid that what he confronted in Haiti in the aftermath of that country's earthquake a decade ago, desperate shortages of medical supplies, equipment, personnel, could soon face us here. And that was the same thing I'd faced when I was in Haiti. It's about the most difficult decision that you can make. You're still choking up all these years later. Why? Good question.

You know, you think after after 10 years I'd be beyond that, but it's, again, it's such a difficult decision. There are guidelines. New York State put out a massive, thoughtful set in 2015. The Italians have drafted a set based on their current experience, but every hospital follows essentially its own guidelines. We're trying to save the greatest number of lives possible. So, I think that's the best the greatest number of lives possible. So, in some cases, these guidelines would really shift radically the way we work and put both patients and doctors and families in the terrible position of saying, we can't do what you would want. Dr. Tia Powell is director of bioethics at Montefiore Medical Center in New York.

And the basic goal is to divide people into three large categories. One, the lucky group. Maybe you'll have a very mild case.

You might feel miserable, but you're not in danger. The group that you're looking for in a hospital is the group that is very sick and that actually may die without critical care resources. But if we can get them those resources, they have a good chance of pulling through.

And then the third group is the most unlucky. That's people with a terrible prognosis, people for whom even with critical care resources, the chance of surviving is terrible. I'm sure it's not a term that you will happily use, but we're talking about rationing. It's a form of rationing, yeah.

And I agree, everybody tries to avoid that word, but I would actually like people to understand what may be coming. What we fear will happen, what is most likely to happen, is that persons who are poor, persons who are racial ethnic minorities, are less likely to get ventilators than those who are wealthy and well-connected. David Williams is a professor at the Harvard School of Public Health. And what makes it even more challenging is that the disadvantaged groups we have just talked about, they are the ones who begin this process being more vulnerable because they have earlier onset of disease, more likely to face chronic ongoing stressors in multiple domains of their lives. So we're looking at those most in need, being most likely to be disadvantaged. We have to keep trying and doing things. So is it likely that people will die from lack of access to ventilators?

Probably. Does that mean as an individual as an individual patient, they're likely to die? No, because we're not going to quit trying.

So I understand why you're fighting me on this. You don't want to let anybody believe that the medical community is just going to give up. And I'm not suggesting that you will. But I am suggesting in the strongest terms that we don't have adequate supplies to meet the likely demand. You don't think that's an unfair statement, do you? Given my knowledge of the situation, that's not an unfair statement.

But I'm not a supply guy, I'm a doctor. Do you think the public is adequately informed about? No. No. Well, I'm not.

I don't think that the healthcare community is adequately informed. And I think, you know, experts have been working on this. But now it is really a realistic possibility. And it's a realistic possibility not in a year, but soon. I never thought I would see this day. And we're not quite there. But realistically, many, many health professionals are preparing to do just this.

It's a time for family and friends and staying close to home. And no one knows that better than our Jim Gaffigan. As you can see, I'm here in quarantine.

Or is it on quarantine? Either way, I'm here. And obviously, I don't normally look like this. The quarantine has kind of, you know, affected my appearance. All right, fine. This is what I look like normally. I've been here with my family in our apartment for six decades, six days, six days, dinner, lunch, breakfast.

But you know what? I'm trying to use this time to reconnect with my wife and our beautiful four children. Five children.

One of them short. Honestly, in February, when I heard rumors about hypotheticals of us being quarantined in our apartments and houses with our families, I was mostly worried about being bored. And then I heard Shakespeare wrote King Lear while he was on quarantine.

During the Black Plague. And here's what I've learned. I'm not bored.

I'm not bored at all. Creative production? None. No King Lear. But you know what? I also realized that Shakespeare, probably if he was writing King Lear, he wasn't helping his family.

He wasn't helping his wife. So really, we should look at maybe canceling Shakespeare. The second thing I learned is all these movies and shows about post-apocalyptic times were wrong. There was not enough emphasis on toilet paper in those shows and movies.

I don't know what some people are doing with the toilet paper, if they're eating it, but some of those people should probably get some roughage in their diet. The third thing I've realized is I love the internet. Thank God for the internet.

The internet has been an invaluable tool for communication and also for creative outlet. For not just me, but also my family. Dinner with the Gaffagins. Dinner with the Gaffagins. Every night we do this YouTube show called Dinner with the Gaffagins. And to be honest, that show brings my family together and maybe makes us not kill each other. Anyway, I love you, internet.

When did that article go up? And finally, I learned it's possible for one man to eat two weeks of food for seven people. You made all our food? Don't tell your mom.

Mom? Be safe, everyone. Before we leave you this morning, a note on what's on all of our minds.

No, the world is not ending, but our big blue marble sure feels more fragile than ever. As we sit here, continents, countries, time zones, and zip codes have all blurred into a single global community. What used to worry us now feels almost embarrassingly trivial. We cared more about likes on social media than our social responsibilities.

We were concerned about streaming our movies, not the lines of homeless streaming out of shelters. We tended to look at our phones more than one another. In fact, we were social distancing without even knowing what that really was not so long ago. Isn't it strange that we're all craving human connection now that we can't have that connection for a while?

The joy of breaking bread with friends or raising a glass at the bar or kneeling together in worship has been replaced with empty chairs and empty pews. Those in their golden years, the ones who thought that they had seen everything, never thought they'd see the day where they couldn't visit with their kids or their grandkids, all because a reassuring hug may put them at risk. Even the loved ones of those who have died can't come together in any great numbers to mourn.

How do we quarantine tears? But in all of this separation, we are still connected by what our better angels are whispering. We truly have to go out of our way to be to be uncaring in these uncertain times. For once, the road to kindness and compassion is actually the easier one. We can now see the plights of our neighbors, the bus driver or the cab driver, anyone who had been forgotten, all views that perhaps used to be obscured from the hustle and bustle of our lives before. For anyone wanting a reset to get back to what matters most, the heart of the human condition, this may be that moment.

A test to see if love really does conquer all. So no, the world is not ending. Instead, we just might be getting a new start.

I'm Lee Cowan. We hope you stay safe and healthy as these uncertain days unfold and that you'll join us when our trumpet sounds again next Sunday morning. Well, Georgia's right up there, but New Hampshire is a surprise. In New Hampshire, people really just kind of don't like Maggie Hassan. For more from this week's conversation, follow the Takeout with Major Garrett on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.