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January 26, 2021 7:03 am
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That's next year.
Rob I guess today is Bob Dall he's a senior portfolio manager and the chief equity strategist at Nuveen asset management working managers for billion dollars worth of assets and he really does have his finger on the pulse of the stock market and the economy in general, but Eddie does Stephen every year. Bob makes a list of things we're likely to see over the next 12 months, and he's been gracious with this time to stop by and hopefully unpack a few of these today for us and even take some your questions. Bob welcome back to moneywise live.
Thank you. It's a delight to have you here before we get into what 20, 21, is likely to hold for us.
Bob set the stage and give us a recap of 2020 year that as you know, many folks are saying good riddance to yes no question about it. So if you want with family, going to sleep on January 1 became awakened on December 31, and you saw the returns in your portfolio sleep I get kinda quiet little bonds went up a little.
Everything is good, but of course we know wasn't that the tumult in the middle ear was amazing. I meet for the first time in our lifetimes.
Rob we saw what happens when the economy gets turned off turn back on again. There were two experiments that had the amazing impacts on so many things including policymakers is no question about it is you allude to in your commentary around the world global GDP declined by 10 trillion's incredible and is the fastest move from bearable to bear market right no question about it.
You've heard me say this before. I think what I'll never forget as long as God gives me time on this earth is how the change in the consensus for global GDP, the broadest measure of the output of this planet went from +3-3 and six weeks from early March to mid April that swing has never happened before, or any timeframe, little six week unanticipated coronavirus prices change Apsley everything was assassinating, though, was that really very few people so the stock market bottoming as quickly as it did. March 23. I think your investment commentary happened to note technical factors suggest stocks are actually bottoming. And that's exactly what we saw wasn't I've learned over my career bottoms are a lot easier to call bottoming him to be the and tops tend to be long saucers and often at that bottom you seek technical diversions that say it's time back up the truck yeah yeah absolutely. Well, what other big developments to BC in 2020 that we need to take note, as I recall it was a small election in 2020 in the lead up to that, of course, and the aftermath was only good mystery divided country and so so many ways, and the election showed that yet again and only God knows how he's going to bring bring us back to himself in and to each other in the process. Rob's was no doubt about that. Also incredible global monetary responses that we saw last year as well. In the midst of the pandemic yacht with the beginning of reflation. Reflation is like when you have a tire that's flat and you pump it full of air briefly will the central banks of the world including the US central bank.
The Fed kind of the day after we turned off the economy we better come to the rescue and so we saw on precedent and contributions of monetary and fiscal stimulus $10 trillion in the US alone and nearly 40 trillion global now what will 2021 hold that we borrowed some of the returns from last year will find out that much more is not licensed today with us today. He was West later in the program.
Our guest is a good friend Bob Dall with Nuveen asset management worry overseas for billion dollars worth of other people's money and today he helps us take it you just what's where we've been and what's coming up. Perhaps in 2021 educated guesses. Some may call them predictions. I mean this is a good time to looking ahead to maybe get out completely out of the stock market. What about global moves that are already being seen.
What about the national debt.
How big an issue is that going to be really and 12.
These kinds of things.
If we can help you in regard to well even what the White House is been up to. Just in the few short weeks that are new presidents been there. What more moves, what might we see from him and how will that impact the way all all of us live on a daily basis.
What about the price of gasoline. I had somebody asking me that about today. I don't know what about the Super Bowl. Well we have a guy with us today who makes predictions and maybe we'll even hear one from Abdul is a renowned portfolio manager is also outspoken about his faith up and down Wall Street Bob Dall Bob tells the funds that you manage specifically how I manage a large War fund plain vanilla I manage an equity market neutral fund, which is curious about 100 stocks long and 100 stock short, it's really enhanced cash return and then at cleaner if you will equity long short and then we have some separately managed accounts that are specific to value and growth have one cold stable growth so that the product the product list. I love it. If you have time to Google Bob Dall, investment commentary and then don't miss it.
It comes out every week. It's something I rely on and Bob before we get into the 10 predictions for 2021.
The Holmes or Brady or you can take a position so many times Pete from Kansas City about that I didn't have to stretch far to see how that could happen then. So we see we talked about the backdrop coming out of 2020 and we'd love to know your 10 predictions for 2021 starting with the what's gonna happen with gross domestic product in the US economic growth in the US is going to be strong. We think that the economy and earnings will be great this year and the stock market will be good. It is likely the US economy will have its fastest growth rate in 36 years since 1984. Great growth this year could be five or 6%. Remember, and consumers have one and 1/2 trillion dollars of excess savings just from last year on the back of government checks, money they wouldn't spit it couldn't spend because whatever they want to do with closed other people money.
They didn't spend because they were afraid to them they stayed at home, no question about it fascinating that it could be that fast. In terms of growth. What about inflation. A lot of folks concerned that the monetary stimulus is going to result in high inflation where you think will lend their higher inflation. Yes, I don't think so. You know, inflation up and running not too far from zero. We we think it'll approach 2% this year, which be the highest in some time. Remember the central bank, the Fed wants inflation averaged 2%. So if it's one for a while.
It could be three to averaged two so inflation I think will pick up and get some of our attention, but not become a particular problem that you mention the economy is going to grow at a great pace you mentioned stocks good. What is that mean for the year on stocks. We think stocks go up about half the amount of earnings. Earnings growth this year is likely to be above 20% might be 25 could be closer to 30 to Stockton keep up with that half way and the reason of course Rob is the stock market is a function of earnings and the valuation we put on those earnings. If we get modestly higher inflation and interest rates, the price earnings ratio.
Those P/E ratios probably get challenge little bit and that's what we think stocks are good but the economy there is a great interest rates is a lot of folks that are in cash positions because maybe there in retirement or just try to preserve what they have talked to us about stocks versus cash versus treasury bonds first year and eight order stocks first cash second bonds third stocks because the strong earnings really talk about that cash is returning not far from zero. Sadly, for those who hold it.
And if interest rates move up a little bit, as inflation moves up a little bit will be a lot of bonds that have negative returns this year, especially treasury bonds. The closer you are to the government treasury curve for sovereign curves around the world.
The more challenged things will be of interest rates that creep up and Bob for retiree who has a portfolio they're trying to generate an income off of that portfolio. Maybe their target is 4% a year, and with interest rates so low when you're talking about falling bond prices. Where does that leave them and they do with their money between a rock and a hard place, no question about it Outlook a lot of advisors are counseling maximize the return of the portfolio and take the 4% you need out of the total return web then making sure the current return meets the objectives can be hard to do that and not put up with principal losses: any year like this. Do you think that that begins to change as we move forward, you see the day. If we get the kind growth you're predicting that interest rates could begin to take up swing to the 10 year treasury came in the year just under 1%. We think by the end of this year's likely be about 1 1/2% and you don't you want a tenure treasury and the yield goes from 93 basis points to €150 and some money. Rob is not a lot of fun. It's about getting a lot of calls from folks that are just really concerned about the US federal debt talk to us about this.
The levels were likely to see this year and what the implications are great question. A lot of people ask, I've been getting that question out.
Seems like forever in my consistent answer has been this does not yet capital Y ET matter and the reason is that interest rates have come down faster than the debt has gone up, and as a result, interest expense, which is the product of those two things that times the interest rate is the interest rate. Interest expense on the debt has actually fallen as a percentage of our economy and that's why people aren't talking about yes for borrowing from the future. I'm not trying to sweep the problem the rug I'm trying to argue why it has not yet mattered. It will matter when the debt accumulates at a fast pace and interest rates go up so much as one and 1/2%. If we get the point where the going up faster than that. So we are borrowing from the future. There is no free lunch, but it has not mattered to the economy? If yes, I don't think it will. This year your thoughts, your predictions on the upcoming year. Are they based on cold good doing anything one way or the other being complete. I completely decimated and gone forever, or some something in between. The vaccine will continue to be rolled out and were not the point where vaccinations are going up faster than the cases in a lot of places the cases are coming back down. So our assumption is that by the middle of this year. Most people want to be vaccinated will be and will have a shot at herd immunity and that will open up our economy again. We should have a strong second half. The looming coronavirus disappears but it means it's contained it's managed and people feel safe again. Since it is today with the landscape politically. What is that mean for the economy, the markets and what might we already know about where a Biden administration is going from a policy standpoint and the effect that will have all my progress so complicated when we make it simple. I think by demonstration as it relates to economics and the investment markets left two bites at the apple. The first will be an attempt to get another stimulus package here in the next month or two I think is a good chance they will get not truly an .9 that Biden is asking for, but something closer to half that. Then in the back part of the year.
I think to come back and try to do a bigger bill some infrastructure spending some clean energy some tax increases on big corporations that have very low tax rates as well as high income and high wealth Americans getting that went through is coming a lot tougher, but that will be the servant of the Biden administration economic policy states were always so thankful for your outlook and your encouragement. I love you to finish today by just reminding us what is really important and that's an eternal perspective, the ground us. If you will, and God's word so many principles. As you know better than I but it starts with recognizing that that God owns it all the money were talking about is RC just limited to its stewards of it.
We have a high calling to get it right because it is in the first place and were accountable. I think it's also took to remember that were just passing through.
Life is short on this planet are our citizenship is in heaven, and if we really believe that we need to give our money away to people who need it and because of that need it and so those two encouragements. I hope for listeners love it will bomb early so grateful for your time and your friendship and your leadership on Wall Street. Thanks for stopping by my friend my privilege. That's the voice of Bob Dall. He's the chief equity strategist at new asset management. You can sign up for the spring we can market commentaries.com NU.com have a link to the show moneywise because next Saturday with us today on moneywise live West is your hosting your calls on anything financial and 805 five 7000.
I'm Steve born again we love to hear from you whether it's buying, selling, investing, you name it lets chat about it. 800-525-7000 and Rob always enjoy talking with guests like Bob Dall who knows so much about the stock market and where they've been and where were heading and sold out committed to Jesus Christ as Lord. But you know whether were able to call these things are not or whether these predictions come true or not, or to what extent, if we replaced well financially and were well thought out and well versed in our approach to investing. It shouldn't matter all that much should it know I think you're exactly right at midnight.
It said I think helpful to understand, just for her own education as we manage God's money.
What's going on around us.
So what market forces are at work and to the extent where it hearing to biblical principles. I think we recognize that and to the extent that perhaps were violating them as a nation nor you know in terms of how were handling money on the macro level.
It's just really interesting. But again, to your point Steve, if you're managing your money properly you a long time horizon, you're not the highly concentrated in your properly diversified.
You have the right investment mixture on the same page as husband and wife you not using leverage or debt for your investing.
You got a solid financial foundation of the then you just allow this thing to play out over a long period of time and the ebbs and flows even in a given year. Shouldn't really matter but at the same time and I think it's just encouraging another men and women like Bob Dall up and down Wall Street that are having an incredible influence and love the name and serve the name of Jesus Christ. It's just encouraging me to through our phones that seem underline Illinois hi Lewis, thanks for your patience.
How can we help you earn information to How to set a budget and to earn eight can learn how just want to know how much I can get to the lower not feel nervous about how just talk to yeah yeah the right place. We offer some thoughts here. We forget our next break you Lois. First of I'm sorry to hear about your husband's passing. I'm really encouraged about what you're saying because you know to your point.
When we know where we stand.
We know what we have, how much of God's money were managing and we have the organized accounting of that and we have a budget that balances in that budget reflects what's important to us or values in our priorities. We know that her bills are paid and we know where income sources are to come from and are in the future. To the best of our ability does me were not dependent upon the Lord we are.
But when we have that information then were freed up to do even more giving because there's not all these question marks about where my going at one of my doing and how much do I really haven't, what is it take to fund my lifestyle so you getting to that place I think is good to give you incredible peace of mind and free you up to give even more, which is clearly on your heart. What I would say is this, I connect with one of our moneywise coaches. These are men and women who been trained to walk alongside you to help you put together spending plan that's good to be key, help you get your affairs in order and help you determine how much you can give.
I also heard you say your interest in the 529 plan. I see the notes interest in the 529 plan for your grandson. I think that's a wonderful tool to save for college. Lois the best website. If you are comfortable on the computer for that. To learn more is saving for college.com for asking moneywise coaches about a 529 plan is Lois thank you very much for your phone call today wish you the very best we come back and say hi to John in Tennessee, Ron in Miami and maybe you this is moneywise live taking your questions and provide answers to the challenges financial challenges you're facing. We love to hear from you today helping with something.
Give us a call so financial 800-525-7000 Rockwood, Tennessee hello John, how can we help concerns managing retirement. I am 71 years. My my printer is scary more than cover my monthly expenses and considerable amount right your traditional IRAs. I am aware that the 170 1/2 that I can start directly to my church tradable calls about touching it, but I'm also concerned about helping my children. I know when I pass and they pay my tax on their taxes on top of it of their income which is something I like the not to happen.
Correctional I think moving not moving money out of my IRA, which is considerable noise minimize taxes yeah yeah thanks Johnson that I mean I would encourage you to spend some time with a competent tax preparer or accountant who can help you walk through this based on your specific situation, but in general, a couple of thoughts number one would be when time comes I would love for you to consider the qualified charitable distribution. Are you familiar with that tool that I can have something sent directly to I don't touch it exactly yeah and satisfies the RMD the required minimum at the same time it's money you don't recognize his income to charity.
Doesn't any tax on when it sold so everybody wins. You get a nice deduction well in this case you would just wouldn't recognize the income they get the full value of the transfer and you don't have to take the money out to pay taxes on it so that would be a great way to offset money you were going to give us cash or in addition to that, if you want to give even more IRA beneficiaries typically are going to be required to take ongoing RMD's which would generally be a taxable event, not double taxation but where they have to pay their own portion, a non-spousal beneficiary will typically have to withdraw all the funds inherited in the IRA within 10 years of the owner's death, but the key there would be to try to spread that as much as you can to just lessen the chance of going up into a higher tax bracket in any given year as that money comes out so I think that you know being generous with those funds is really one of the most effective tools you know in terms of lessening the tax burden on money.
That's ultimately not needed by you. But beyond that, I think you as you pass it on there just gonna take it out and pay taxes on it is income a great news is you've obviously got plenty there.
If you had a major expense down the road are needed it for long-term care. Something like that and I'm delighted to hear you kept your lifestyle and check such that the pension and Social Security and any other income sources you have is covering your expenses so I think you're right.
Managing this well to preserve what you have, to give it away to be generous to ultimately pass it on as an inheritance and you know allow them to recognize whatever tax burden is due at that point is just about the best way to proceed from here. But beyond that, specifically related to your situation.
Nothing to be well worth your time to connect with the godly tax preparer who can advise you on the specifics John. We appreciate that call that question today. We wish you the best best. Thanks very much. Miami, Florida hello Ron, what's on your mind's or before try to get this to get quickly. I'm going to be 69 this year. My wife is 64. We were in a foreign country until 2005 when we moved here to stay and basically I began my financial life.
The state at that point.
So I do get Social Security. But it's very small and workplace.
We have our own and our income with increasing year-over-year, but then COBIT get right when I was poised to pay out really make an attack to set up our financial house. Better to pay off some debt that we have and maybe look at some investing then COBIT it. My wife is been unemployed since then. It really knocked our income back but I got it faithful every step of the way to take care of.
We lacked for nothing but I thinking a lot about investing for the future because we are getting older and and I just don't know how to because there's so little money available and I wanted after you got you think it's a good idea be trying to find a way to invest very little work we have to wait until our income goes up a bit yeah yeah well I'm sorry to hear about the changes but I'm glad to hear that you had some surplus so you are in a position where even with an income reduction, you still know been able to get by. Obviously, the Lord is provided in you. Given testimony that you know I think Ron is you look at the resources that are available at all comes down to what you have coming in and then what is the priority use of that for some folks they're looking at what we call a made a budget where they have to keep the big four paid and everything else is discretionary by big four amine food on the Dave table the house or mortgage paid the utilities on and the car in working order and with gasoline so we can get to and from work. Everything else is kind of you know it available to be cut or eliminated if it all possible.
And then you can move beyond that to say, you know, in a time where income is cut, we want to preserve cashew. It's probably not a time to be making a lot of accelerated debt payments that's during the good times in the lean times.
We just want to keep the minimum spate in terms of your ability to put money away for the long term.
I love that, but not at the expense of continuing to give proportionately continuing to fund your emergency fund. If you're not yet a 3 to 6 months expenses are. You had to dip into that or if you have any credit card debt, or other high interest consumer debt.
I'd rather you focus on those. Even at the expense of saving for the long term. But if you paid off your credit card debt you got in at least three months worth of expenses in the bank as an emergency fund and you're making ends meet.
Then yeah being able to continue to systematically put money away for the longer term while you're continuing to work while you're waiting for your small business to rebound is a good idea.
I just wouldn't do it at the expense of other things, meaning having reserves to be able to take care of the unexpected or when you're paying high interest consumer debt. This doesn't make sense to you. Very helpful. Thank you so much Ron bless you. Thanks for your call before we take another call and before the clock gets the better of us want to quickly mention the the new moneywise after something we've been working on for a very long time. II shouldn't include myself in that. But the wonderful staff you put together you came up with a lot of thoughts and ideas, things you wanted an app to do that all the apps you were playing with over the last couple of years just didn't do so, tell us about the moneywise app and why everyone listening should get a copy. Well Steve were so proud and excited of the app that we've been able to develop them and we have a team of world-class developers are working on this since late last year and you what we've come up with I think is just absolute incredible at its core. It's a digital envelope system where you can either manually track your expenses in envelopes or by electronically, connecting and downloading all of your transactions from your institutions. It's a great way to manage your money. Also the community and the discovery tab allow you to connect with others. Also on this journey and you can find out more about be right back after this. You are listening to moneywise will moneywise live moneywise. I've got it figured out, and a pleasure to have you with us today. Alex, Denae and Carla and Alex.
You're up next sir what your question Michael, Jessica, my wife Shirley or 20 years. She like to retire from the corporal war. The next thing years so cheap. 401(k) in the meantime we are paying a lot to our principal in my mortgage so we are blessed to probably pay off our mortgage in a year and 1/2 now. After that we got 1/2 a lot of portable income. So my question is why to use alt.income goal where my wife 401(k) all open at Royal IRA IRA only getting $6000 a year maximum contribution 401(k) of my wife war were placed on the five then dollar for dollar yeah yeah very good. Let me ask you what is your age. Alex, you and your wife. We bought 45 okay 45 and in terms of your long-term retirement savings between what she has in her 401(k). What you been able to put away for retirement. Do you have a sense of whether you're on track ahead or behind of ultimately what you'd like to able to accumulate between now and a retirement season.
We live so I don't really like to my wife, retirement planning, to my employer so I just save money on the account money talks on… March, so bought you. Not sure how we failed their home alt.disposable income was planning to do with the Royal IRA by $40,000 a year and I would like to put all reports and all my income to my my wife will wife to do that or not. You know what percent of her income she's putting in right now. Right now, you will find the company match 5% dollar for dollar. You're not putting anything in an retirement account.
Is that right now I'm putting anything every single multiple income that would do right now. We said mortgage.what we got half got it. Okay, well, a couple of things. Number one is we don't want to just accumulate for accumulation sake. We want to know where we are today and where were going because we know the were going.
We don't know how to get there right so I'd love for you all to spend some time with a financial planner just probably a couple of hours to do some retirement planning to determine what is your lifestyle now and what might you expect to be in a retirement season and what is it gonna take to get there.
How much do you need to put away annually at a reasonable growth rate to accomplish that she's putting in 5%, but that's only 5% on her income.
So if you had your income and let's say you're making the same amount. And who knows whether it's higher or lower, you'd only be putting 2 1/2% away of your total income. I'd rather you be up 10% plus and so I think this is a good idea.
I like that you're going to be debt-free including your home and obviously you will have a conviction about that and that's great you're to be unencumbered to be a lot of peace of mind that comes along with that. So congratulations but I think yeah redirecting the disposable income, assuming you have an emergency fund and you don't have any high interest consumer debt redirecting that to a Roth. But you're right you're going to fill that up pretty quickly with that $6000 max for you and her 12,000 total then putting the difference into higher contributions to the 401(k).
Once both of your Roth IRAs are maxed out for the year. I think makes a lot of sense and then spending some time really quantifying what your ultimate objective is so you can determine whether you are in fact on track.
Given this additional money that will be going toward retirement through increased contributions to the traditional husk is made to the 401(k) and the two Roth IRAs I think makes a lot of sense.
The following thing why my wife will get increase your contribution 401(k) I would fully fund the Roth's first because that would give you both the tax-deferred and the tax-free growth vehicles working for you, but to the extent you want to be able to put away more than 12,000 year then I think that's when she would start increasing beyond the matching portion of the 401(k) in her account.
Alex, thanks for calling in today. We appreciate that Sir out to Montana where they probably have at least a little bit of snow on the ground today. Thanks for holding which a question for Rob West 10 what you Denae. You probably have a stated guaranteed return on those annuities unless you're in a variable annuity that's gonna be a function of the stock market returns perhaps a portion of the upside, limited downside, do you have a sense of what kind of return has been promised to you. Inside those annuities. You already have.
Okay so I think we need to do a bit of due diligence.
I mean, I wouldn't expect to see much impact specifically related to the change in the in the presidential administration on the annuity.
Specifically, the question is where is the economy going where interest rates going and how is the stock market going to performance earlier in the broadcast. We had Bob Dall on a well-known economist and and mutual fund manager on Wall Street for decades. He's expecting the fastest growth in the US GDP and 36 years. He's expecting nice gains on the stock market, but he is also expecting you know near 0% interest rates, which means cash is knocking to do well and bond prices may actually fall. That's just a function of what's going on in the economy with the pandemic and the monetary policy and a whole bunch of other things. But the bottom line is you need to understand what annuities do you have, they tend to be complicated, so I would have a professional can read the fine print and explain it to you because there's either guaranteed fixed annuities that pay a fixed return each year based on the contract or there's variable annuities which typically allow you have a portion of the upside of the stock market in any given year, with a floor meaning it can't fall below your original deposits and I think depending on what you have will tell you how you can expect those to perform this year so I recommend you connect with a certified kingdom advisor there in Montana to get some counsel on your situation and you can do that. Denae by visiting our website moneywise live.org click find ACK and that you can search by city and state or ZIP Code today.
Thank you very much God bless you, Frankfurt, Indiana Carla, how can we help you today how I are wondering about doing a mortgage recall and not sure if that's a good idea for you about your situation. What is it you're trying to accomplish.
Darn market are my largest job and with what I plan to get this mortgage paid off in a couple years. It's actually not due to be paid October 2027 that we've been paying extra money every month towards the principal takedown quickly and he's getting ready to retire. I mean he's working now but not anything near what we had before, so I'm really trying mortgage paid off if I just don't want to have that payment and art magic any longer. You will please paid if we did this mortgage recast. We would cut our payment down by hundred $80 amount in my plan. Whatever we been paying right now on it at that extra hundred and 80 takedown factor and I don't how it works or not. Yeah yeah well I think the thing you need understand is with a mortgage recast. Typically, would you talk about is where the borrowers pin the pay a large some toward the principal and in the mortgages can be recalculated based on the newer lower outstanding balance which is gonna reduce that monthly payment but not necessarily help you to pay that off quicker because you have the same interest rate and potentially you're sending less money each month. So I think that the key for you is the fastest way to pay this off is the how much you can send toward principal over and above that monthly payment and what is the interest rate so I think the key here is doesn't make sense to refinance to redoubts reduce the interest rate or because you just have a couple you know, six or seven years left. Is it better just to stay right where you are and then you know can send continue sending over and above the monthly payment. I would have the mortgage company run two amortization schedules one is based on the current mortgage amortization and what you're sending every month, how quickly you pay it off and then based on the recast. If you don't send a lower amount but you continue sending exactly what you are is that can help you pay it off any quicker and at the end of the day. As always, they'll do that without any cost. You just want to go with the option. This can allow you to to eradicate that mortgage just as quickly as possible.
Carla, thank you very much but have to let you go almost out of time and Rob speaking about of time.
No more time for calls today, but we did have a person who wanted to know about credit report stop displacing a fraud alert on the credit report. Stop someone from committing further fraud. Any thoughts in that regard. Well, a fraud alert is a notice that your planet placing your credit report that alerts the credit card companies that may extend credit that you've been the victim of fraud, including identity theft is think of it as a big red flag to potential lenders and creditors to let them know that this is been a part of your past and it encourages these lenders to take extra steps to verify your identity.
It's gonna last for seven years.
It doesn't prevent thieves from using existing accounts is just get a hopefully slow down the lenders who may be thinking about extending credit based on somebody who's impersonating your identity. I'd rather you add to that, though a freeze on your credit right.
Thanks moneywise. Live is a partnership between Moody radio and moneywise media. Thanks so much for turning in doing this again tomorrow