13 Days Until the Election, Polls Tighten

Today on JCQO Live, with 13 days until the election and polls tightening, could it be déjà vu all over again? We'll talk about that more today on JCQO Live. Live from Washington, D.C., JCQO Live. Phone lines are open for your questions right now. Call 1-800-684-3110. That's 1-800-684-3110. And now, your host, Jordan Sekulow. Alright folks, we're taking your phone calls.

1-800-684-3110. Of course, tomorrow is the final Presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee. That's at 9 p.m. Eastern Time.

So there will be a lot of focus on that, going into that, and then of course, out of that on Friday. But we're starting to look at the polls and where they were state by state in the last election cycle, where Hillary Clinton was, where Donald Trump was, where Joe Biden is, and how things turned out. And if you go and you start looking at key states, take Michigan, for example, which was carried by President Trump in 2016 by 0.3%. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was leading in Michigan in the RCP, the Real Clear Politics, average of polls, so the poll of polls, by over 11 points, 11 and a half points, way outside the margin of error. And she lost the state by 0.3%.

Donald Trump took Michigan. Joe Biden is only up 6.7. So he's five points behind where Hillary Clinton was.

And you look at, again, how things turned out there. Look at Wisconsin, where Hillary Clinton was up seven points four years ago at this point. Biden only at 6.3, so he's under where Hillary Clinton is again, and President Trump carried that state by 0.7. In states where Hillary Clinton did win, so in battlegrounds like New Hampshire, she was showing that she was up eight, and she won only by 0.3. Biden is showing he's up 11 in New Hampshire.

These were not states, by the way, that Donald Trump has to win. Just to give you some examples, not all Trump victory states, but for instance, in Nevada, it showed Hillary Clinton was up 3.7%. She carried the state by 2.4. Right now, the polls are showing that Biden's up five. In another major battleground like Florida, for instance, Clinton was up four in the polls. Biden is up 1.7 in the polls. Trump carried it by 1.2 points in 2016. So you could go through this list, and you see, again, Ohio is the last one I want to hit right now, just numbers-wise, because it just showed these are one of the extreme turnout numbers. So four years ago, Trump was up 0.6%.

I mean, it's not really much, so basically it was tied. This year, the Real Clear Politics Average puts Biden up 0.6, but Trump carried the state by 8.1 points so in 2016. So I think that, again, as we said that the left, they'd love to put all this focus on how it could be a landslide for Joe Biden, and they're trying to get you not to show up to vote. But I think what happens is it's their side that decides not to show up to vote, because you start hearing numbers like that from the left. What I'm telling you is it's very close, and every one of these states is winnable for conservatives.

What they like to do is say how Donald Trump has no chance, and that's absurd when you're speaking to the left, which is what they do on MSNBC and these other networks, and you're telling people basically they don't need to go and show up to vote. There's another interesting poll out today that showed that 60 plus percent of Trump supporters are still too nervous to put a sign out in their yard or a bumper sticker on their car. That's a huge number. Talk about silent majorities. There it is. It shows up in that poll. So I think that, again, there is, you can see this kind of more optimism on the right.

It needs to be, obviously people have got to show up, they've got to vote, and I think that you're starting to see the left more concerned why President Obama hitting the campaign trail about where exactly they are less than two weeks out from election day. We're going to take your phone calls on this, 1-800-684-3110. That's 1-800-684-3110. A lot to unpack just here as we do this kind of compare and contrast of where we were four years ago to where we are today.

1-800-684-3110. We'll be right back on Jay Sekio Live. The challenges facing Americans are substantial. At a time when our values, our freedoms, our constitutional rights are under attack, it's more important than ever to stand with the American Center for Law and Justice. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines protecting your freedoms, defending your rights in courts, in Congress, and in the public arena.

And we have an exceptional track record of success. But here's the bottom line, we could not do our work without your support. We remain committed to protecting your religious and constitutional freedoms. That remains our top priority, especially now during these challenging times. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side.

If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org where you can learn more about our life changing work. Become a member today, ACLJ.org.

Only when a society can agree that the most vulnerable and voiceless deserve to be protected is there any hope for that culture to survive. And that's exactly what you are saying when you stand with the American Center for Law and Justice to defend the right to life. We've created a free, powerful publication offering a panoramic view of the ACLJ's battle for the unborn.

It's called Mission Life. It will show you how you are personally impacting the pro-life battle through your support. And the publication includes a look at all major ACLJ pro-life cases, how we're fighting for the rights of pro-life activists, the ramifications of Roe v. Wade 40 years later, the play on parenthood's role in the abortion industry and what Obamacare means to the pro-life movement. Discover the many ways your membership with the ACLJ is empowering the right to life. Request your free copy of Mission Life today online at ACLJ.org slash gift. Welcome back to Jay Sekhil Live.

This is Jordan Sekhil. We are taking your phone calls. What we want to do today was kind of look at, because I think this is making a lot of kind of waves throughout the political world, and that is when you start now digging deeper into these polls, state by state polls, not just national polls, but state by state polls, and you realize you look at where Hillary Clinton was four years ago, you look at where Donald Trump was four years ago, and you look at how things turned out. Well, you know how things turned out with Donald Trump winning the election, but also winning states that Republicans had not been able to win in a few cycles, like Wisconsin, like the states, like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and of course, I mean on here the only, when you really look at where things are, it is strikingly similar, you know, strikingly similar to exactly where Hillary Clinton was. Now, does that mean it's the same election?

No. Does it mean, we have President Trump's spent four years in office, so there's more to judge about exactly his governance style and what he's been able to accomplish. We have COVID, we have other, you know, there's outliers. Hillary Clinton had a lot of things going for her, but also mostly against her.

You know, they wanted to say it was the first President who was a woman, but she had so many negatives that it even kind of outweighed that notion or that kind of campaign pitch because she was so well known and had kind of divided people. Then you got, you know, so Joe Biden is different than that, potentially, but he also hasn't been out there very much. He certainly, I mean, like this week, there's a debate and he's done nothing but practice for a debate.

I mean, it's an hour and a half. It's important, but we're not ever sure exactly how important those debates are really anymore unless you have just a horrendous performance and people pick up on that because people are so partisan and who pays attention, but to do nothing all week. And to me, I want to go right to Thad Bennett in Washington, DC, because Thad, I think when you look at this, if you're a Democrat strategist, you got to start figuring out, okay, maybe we're trying to play a dozen plus states, but we need to choose eight of these and really push forward because we cannot live off these polls.

We're not going to survive off of four-point leads. Yeah, first of all, I just don't think it's a very good strategy for the former vice President to allow the President to be out among the states and then just to be solely preparing for debates. I don't think that's a good way to connect with voters, but Jordan, when you look at the numbers and you ran through them, this is why I talked about on yesterday's broadcast how I think the only good analysis doesn't start with the polls. It starts with the 2016 result as the basis and then looks at these state-based polls on top of that foundation. And you're right, Jordan, you've got to look at it in comparison to how they were four years ago, because there's no doubt that there's still a silent or a shy majority.

There's no doubt that we have seen consistent problems in how they do polling, whether it's the sample makeup, whether or not it's, you know, they look at registered voters or likely voters and then how accurate they are about whether or not those voters are likely. But Jordan, as I look at those list of states that you went through, there are 12 states there. The President outperformed, not in the majority of them last time, he outperformed in all 12 of them in 2016 and some of them, many of them by wide margins, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 points, Jordan. So look, if I'm inside vice President Joe Biden's campaign right now and I'm looking at these numbers and I'm comparing them against 2016, I got to be honest with you, I'm scheduling visits in all 12 of these states and probably repeated visits. I wouldn't want to be just preparing for the debate because those numbers are not friendly to him.

Let's put it that way, Jordan. Let me ask you folks, 1-800-684-3110 that's 1-800-684-3110. If you are in one of those battleground states, so a state where you're getting a lot of trash, you see the ads, you have the campaigns, maybe you've got people knocking on your door, maybe you're volunteering, maybe you're making phone calls and knocking on doors on the weekend, the rallies are coming and so you see the signage. If you're in a solidly blue or red state, you don't get that same feeling. So I want to hear from you, those of you who are in these states like, I'll run it down, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, give us a call.

What does it feel like on the ground in your communities and what you're hearing and what you're seeing at 1-800-684-3110? Because that also gives a true sense. The fact is if you don't actually talk to people in an honest and open way right now where people feel safe in their discussions, as that poll showed, 60% of people are scared to tell their neighbors that they support Donald Trump, to put a sign in their yard. And about 65% are too nervous to have it on their car as a bumper sticker. Now I will tell you, last election cycle, it seemed like it was more of a statement. This time around I've told people the silent majority, if you really believe it, if you care, people need to know who you support. And I think it's important in this cycle, but I think it does make a very true statement that this idea that people are still, 60% of people are too nervous to put the bumper sticker or the yard sign out. And imagine what that's like if you are in one of those swing states. But when you look at these numbers, it has got to be extremely, all these talk, even there's a Drudge headline right now, and I think Drudge has gone off the rails a bit, specifically because President Trump has made it kind of irrelevant, these kind of news aggregators because he breaks news before you can even get the link up.

So I'm sure it has not made Matt Drudge's advertising any easier. So he's kind of, he'll put up these things that say negative, is there going to be a Biden landslide? And you look at the number, I mean, the numbers aren't there right now for a landslide. Now it doesn't necessarily to be a landslide for anyone when it comes to how much you won a state by. But electoral landslide, if you look at where things were in 2016 and where they are today, it would favor President Trump electorally.

Would it be close in states? Yes, he won very close victory. He won Michigan by 0.3. He won Wisconsin by 0.7, Pennsylvania by 0.7.

You look at others though, that they're trying to say they're battlegrounds. He won by, you know, Texas by nine and he's up five of the polls right now. He was up five of the polls last time. Arizona showed Clinton up one, this time it shows Biden up four, but there's a new poll out that only has Biden up one in Arizona. So I mean, you see it and you say, okay, and President Trump doesn't have to win every state he won to get to 270. The only real outlier is, is that the President was up 4.6 in Georgia. He ended up winning by 5.1, so that was pretty accurate. This one has Biden up 1.2, which is a little bit different.

So I mean, that's what appears to be kind of the outlier here. Yeah, even there though, where it finished, it would still... Trump finished at eight, plus eight. Yeah, so Trump would win.

Plus five, excuse me. The problem is it still overcomes those margins if those polls are accurate. This is a much more nerve wracking sign for Joe Biden's campaign that is supposed to be on this path to this victory and it was supposed to be so easy and oh, it's so easy to beat Donald Trump.

Not so easy because... Well, look at Pennsylvania is the best example of that. Yes, where you could really, I mean, Hillary Clinton had a six point lead in the polls, the same average of polls. Joe Biden's under that and Trump won it by 0.7. So Joe Biden's only got a five point lead. So again, if you start on election night, if those states start falling on the East Coast to Donald Trump, yeah, they're going to be crying on MSNBC real early, real early in the evening.

The question is going to be, like we've talked about, will enough of... Will we get enough of results where they start crying on election night? Because in Pennsylvania, they've got three extra days to count. North Carolina, nine extra days if the circuit court just weighed in there.

Nine days, yeah, nine days and that... Just on the phone won that. Yeah, I mean, so that'll get appeal. But again, you could see how... Those appeals are moved, the North Carolina appeals are going to move very quickly because they came out. There's actually, there's a fourth circuit case and then there's a North Carolina Supreme Court case. So there's a number of cases in the pipeline that are going to move very quickly to the Supreme Court. I think it's conceivable, Jordan, that you have two cases at the Supreme Court, possibly this weekend. Yeah. Folks, I want to continue to take your phone calls at 1-800-68-431.

Tim, we're going to start doing that when we get back from the next break. But I think then when you look at these numbers again and you kind of see, of course, we have a debate Thursday. This is the final debate. There'll be a lot of people tuning in, but at this point, you're speaking to a very narrow audience who has not yet voted and has not yet chosen who they're going to vote for. You're speaking to a narrow audience, Jordan, but the one advantage I think the President's campaign has is you're speaking to the same audience you won over the last time. I mean, when you went through some of those numbers in the Rust Belt, and I would specifically say Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, you know, I think Joe Biden's campaign would probably say, well, look, the President probably needs to win three out of those four to win it. But then the President's campaign would come right back and say, oh, but I won all four of them last time. So you're completely correct. They're speaking to a narrow band of voters. I think the biggest difference, though, is one of the candidates has already convinced them very recently to vote for them.

That's a big advantage. All right, folks, we're going to take your phone calls to 1-800-6-8-4-3110. People are going to weigh in. We've asked people to call in from this list of states. So we've got calls in from New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, ready to go. We get back on JSec Yo Live. As always, support the work of the ACLJ at ACLJ.org.

That's ACLJ.org. And again, I think that this is a critical time for you to begin weighing in. We are 13 days out from Election Day, 13 days out from deciding who the next commander in chief will be in the United States.

Will it remain President Trump or will we take a giant shift to the left in our country with a President Biden? That is two very different choices for people. We'll be right back. Only when a society can agree that the most vulnerable and voiceless deserve to be protected is there any hope for that culture to survive. And that's exactly what you are saying when you stand with the American Center for Law and Justice to defend the right to life. We've created a free, powerful publication offering a panoramic view of the ACLJ's battle for the unborn.

It's called Mission Life. It will show you how you are personally impacting the pro-life battle through your support. And the publication includes a look at all major ACLJ pro-life cases, how we're fighting for the rights of pro-life activists, the ramifications of Roe v. Wade 40 years later, play on parenthood's role in the abortion industry and what Obamacare means to the pro-life movement. Discover the many ways your membership with the ACLJ is empowering the right to life.

Request your free copy of Mission Life today online at ACLJ.org slash gift. The challenges facing Americans are substantial at a time when our values, our freedoms, our constitutional rights are under attack. It's more important than ever to stand with the American Center for Law and Justice. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the frontlines protecting your freedoms, defending your rights in courts, in Congress and in the public arena. And we have an exceptional track record of success.

But here's the bottom line. We could not do our work without your support. We remain committed to protecting your religious and constitutional freedoms.

That remains our top priority, especially now during these challenging times. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side. If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well, this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org where you can learn more about our life-changing work. Become a member today.

ACLJ.org. Welcome back to JCEC Live. We're going to start taking your phone calls now. 1-800-684-3110.

We've asked people to call in specifically from these battleground states. And I want to go right to Ruth in New Hampshire on Line 1. Ruth, welcome to JCEC. You're live. You're on the air. Hi, Ruth.

Hi. I just wanted to let you guys know that the enthusiasm in New Hampshire, especially in my town, which is Candia, is through the roof for Trump. And we've been seeing signs for months, not just little signs, I mean huge signs all over the place. And really the only time that I've seen any Biden signs is in the last month or two. And I'd say they're 15 to 1 for Trump signs, 15 Trump signs to every one Biden signs. That's interesting though, because if you look at the Real Clear Politics average, they have the Vice President Biden up by 11 in your state. Hillary Clinton was up eight four years ago, and she ended up winning New Hampshire by 0.3. So the polls are meaningless. The polls in New Hampshire I think are very tough. People there are very independent-minded voters. They're used to politics. They get a lot of politicians all the time.

I think that it trends that way just because it's a northeastern state. So the polling will trend in the Democrats' direction. But as you see, the results don't.

The results don't turn out that way naturally much. So again, it does come down to one, this is a different kind of turnout election. And as we take more of your calls, it is a different kind of turnout election because you don't have, you're not doing the exact same kind of grassroots you would if there wasn't COVID. So you do have people still getting out the vote.

You have the phone calls. You do have door-to-door campaigning in some places, but it's not the same. So do you, this is really going to be up to your own supporters' enthusiasm to get out, to go out and actually vote, even to put the ballot in correctly in the mailbox.

You have to do it correctly or else the ballot doesn't get counted. I think that you're already, and you will see that Republican voters are much more motivated voters. They know if they don't show up, they always lose because there are less Republicans than Democrats registered. So if Democrats have to really work hard on turnout and they have become a party that has become extremely reliant on specific segments of our population, the African-American vote, and winning 99% of that vote, but also turning out the vote in significant numbers. Is Joe Biden going to be able to do that and Kamala is going to be able to do that when they're not even really out there and their campaigns are not very visible.

That's the, that's a big question. What's interesting about the Kamala Harris not being visible because clearly, you know, she was, she had some exposure to COVID-19, so they pulled her off, but you don't hear a lot, frankly, since the vice Presidential debate where clearly in my view, I think it was overwhelmingly a victory for the vice President, Mike Pence. And I think you've kind of, she's deescalated her, her presence, I think is fair to say, but they're also, look, they've got a strategy with Joe Biden that it's very clear. And that is a strategy that says less is more.

So don't, they keep putting a lid on it. They basically bought this whole week with him doing nothing other than debate prep. Right. And I think that again, that's putting a lot into a debate. That's almost like too much into a debate. Especially when you're reportedly ahead. I mean, debates are important, yes, but everyone knows they really don't turn the election. So especially when so many people have already voted, so you need to motivate your people to get out and vote, right? So why, why are you giving up these days of not being anywhere and you're not being visible?

So you're letting the story about your son and these laptops dominate. Yeah, I don't, that's the thing, you know, Than, I was gonna ask you this cause I know that's the swirling around Washington right now is the whole Hunter, Hunter Biden saga and that story and the FBI now with the laptop and all of that, putting that in just perspective, but there is an intentional move here on behalf of the Biden campaign to not have him out. I mean, and it's because I think of this other stuff.

I do think that other stuff is adding to it for sure. I think part of that decision was made prior to it, Jay, just, and you know, and on one level I get it because the vice President just not, it is not that compelling in that setting. And I think their strategic decision was to keep him off the trail, but look, I still think it's a mistake even if he's not that compelling. I think it's 2016 all over again. This is what Hillary Clinton decided to do to put it on, on coast.

It did not work out for her. And the other thing is Jay, I think it turns it into more of what Jordan just talked about, which is which of these campaigns can use the virtual world to connect with their voters better. I mean, look, has there ever been a better candidate at that than the President of the United States was with his presence on social media? So, you know, it's a mis it's a strategic decision on behalf of Joe Biden's campaign.

In my view, it's a, it's a poor one. Yeah, I think, I think they have made a calculation though. I don't want to take, you know, anything for granted here. I think at the end of the day, uh, fan, this is going to become all about turnout. Who is going to, whether it's early voting or day of voting, uh, it's going to be a question of turn. If you look at the polls, we're exactly where we were with, you know, one outlier being Georgia.

We are exactly where we were this very day, four years ago. Yeah. And we go ahead and show how that turned out. I agree with you that it's going to be about turnout.

I would maybe add one layer to that. It's going to be about more complicated turnout than usual. I mean, usually the turnout involves you either have to return your absentee ballot or you need to show up at the polls. And, you know, there's just so many more ways to vote in different States. Sometimes some of it's before, and a lot of it is counting afterwards. So, uh, look, it is going to be about get out the vote, but there are going to be more layers to that than there have been before.

And listen, if you've only got one outlier in your whole list is real clear politics, poll of polls. And these are why these guys like Steve Kornacki, these guys on MSNBC, all day show and how much Biden's going to win by how much they did this the last time. And it blew up and they just, they're not learning. They don't learn from it.

I just either they don't care. And it's just about telling the choir what they want to hear, uh, because people don't show up, especially during COVID when you start telling them they don't need to, especially when you were so reliant on minority voters in communities that we know have been impacted more by COVID and also your campaign. Let's be honest. He is not as appealing to minority voters. Um, uh, you know, I don't think Joe Biden hit, but because of his own record and who he's been associated with the statements he's made, like, you're not black. If you don't vote for me, uh, you know, say these things like that.

And, and also he's not doing as well amongst Hispanic voters. So you put all that together and you realize, wait, I mean, so again, I don't mind that they keep preaching out to their world, that they've got it in the bag. Go right ahead. Stay at home. Don't campaign. Don't go on the kid. Don't get out the vote efforts. Don't knock on any doors.

Don't put any phone calls out. Uh, try to rely on just television ads and, and social media. See how it works out for you. Hope you have your, your, uh, your, your speech ready on election night. Cause Hillary Clinton didn't, you better have your speech ready. Now, am I saying, am I being too, uh, uh, say that Republicans have the bag? Absolutely not. No, run like you're behind because you are, because I think that every poll shows you're down.

So you have to run, let it show up better than every poll. Exactly. And Republicans are better at doing that. And I do think they're, they're more self motivated.

We don't have to have the labor. You can come around, knock on our door to get us out to vote. Democrats have relied on that more. This kind of community organizing.

That's what community organizing is. Republicans don't have to do that, but Republicans, you're right. Republicans need to be running like we're they're behind because you know what they are. If you look at every single poll, they're not all wrong. Not every single poll is wrong. Now, do I think they will be wrong at the end of the day? Yes. But when you're not up 15 and not up 10, guess what?

Run like you're behind because that's how you win. Yup. All right, folks. Second half hour coming up with Jay Sekio live. Take your phone calls at 1-800-684-3110. As always support the work of the American Surfer Law on just the ACLJ.org. That's ACLJ.org.

We'll be right back on Jay Sekio live. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines protecting your freedoms, defending your rights in courts, in Congress and in the public arena. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side. If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well, this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org where you can learn more about our life changing work. Become a member today.

ACLJ.org. Live from Washington, D.C., Jay Sekio live. And now your host, Jordan Sekio.

All right, welcome back to Jay Sekio live. We're taking your phone calls at 1-800-684-3110. We've got calls in from Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. And we'll start taking those calls again in just a minute because we want to hear from people who are in these battleground states who are living it day to day in the campaign.

They see the ads, the campaigns are there in full force and kind of getting their sense of what it's like on the ground. And that could be very different in states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. It can feel very different depending on what part of the state you're in, what city you're in or your rural area, what region of the state are you in.

It could be very different. And I'm looking at these states, Jordan. I'm saying which ones am I dealing with that have cases that are heading up to the Supreme Court. And North Carolina is one, Pennsylvania has already had one up there. There's another one coming out of the Fourth Circuit.

There may be one coming out of Minnesota and Michigan. So I'm looking at these states and saying, there's a lot of Supreme... By the way, it's not game day Supreme Court cases yet. This is changes to the legislature, legislation on when does an absentee or a mail-in ballot have to be in. And the legislature didn't make the changes, but the courts did.

So we're arguing back and forth on this. Now, Pennsylvania, the court went four to four against us. Next week, Amy Barrett's in there, but there's gonna be a series of cases that are up there before she gets there. There's only so much you can do.

You can't really control the timing on these things. So we're looking at Malta. I know I'll be reviewing briefs tonight of one coming out of the US Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.

I reviewed one just the other day that was coming out of the Second Circuit. I mean, it's just the nature of what it's gonna be. So the courts are gonna have a role in this too, if we get to where the ballots, the voting is that tight. Yeah. I mean, it all comes down to that question. None of this shows that, but none of the polling shows that, but if they're wrong, which they were last time, it didn't really come down to states. And he, the President, had an electoral landslide. Right. It was not...

I mean, there was no... If one or two states were kind of still being figured out, it didn't matter because of the electoral numbers. What do you think happens...

I'll ask this to you and Thanh. What do you think happens if there was an... Because they're all talking about this possible upset in Georgia, which I still find very hard to believe. But if Georgia were to go Democratic, to the senators and to the presidency, what does that change in the calculus?

I'll go first to Jordan. I don't buy that that's gonna happen, but my goodness, the polling is very close. I would say this. One, I think Republicans will take Georgia and I think it's a pipe dream of Democrats.

But number two, I would say this. The problem for Democrats is that that's the only state we're talking about that they could potentially take. And we've got the Republican side of this has got the entire rest of the country. Literally the entire rust belt, the entire Midwest is in play for Donald Trump. We're talking about one state that might be due for Joe Biden. And we're talking about whether or not, again, Trump could continue to win these states. He didn't barely get to 270 in 2016. He got to 304 electoral votes.

He doesn't have to perform as well, and he still wins. So this is the thing for Joe Biden. They wanna focus on Georgia, focus on it all they want. Because I do think it's matters for the Senate. Is it a distraction for the President to go back down there, for instance?

Not necessarily. It's important Senate races down there. You wanna make sure you win. Also, if Joe Biden's campaign is wasting its time there, if you can make them spin there and make them believe that they actually have a chance, then you play the shadow game of showing up there, having rallies, sit in the present there, saying we think we're down here. And then guess what? They spend all their money in a state they had no chance in.

Yeah, you're probably right. Dan, what's your thoughts on that one? I agree with Jordan on all the Presidential analysis. I'm most intrigued by the Senate races. I ultimately think that the Republicans will win both seats that are up. But Jay, the interesting thing to me would be, because they're both jungle primaries and you have a libertarian candidate in one of the races and then two Republicans running in the other special election, you gotta get over 50% to win it outright. It's very possible, Jay, that we could go to January 5th and both of those races could be in a runoff. You would already know who won the White House.

The control of the Senate might hang in the balance, and you'd have two races in Georgia with all of the nation's attention on it. That would be something, Jay. All right, we come back. We'll take your phone calls. 1-800-684-3110.

That's 1-800-6843-110. Got them coming in from the battleground states. For those of you listening or watching who aren't living in those states, this is very interesting to hear what people are really seeing on the ground. They're living this day to day, and they're being probably overwhelmed by substance of the campaign.

We'll be right back on Jay Sekio Live. The challenges facing Americans are substantial. At a time when our values, our freedoms, our constitutional rights are under attack, it's more important than ever to stand with the American Center for Law and Justice. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines protecting your freedoms, defending your rights, in courts, in Congress, and in the public arena.

And we have an exceptional track record of success. But here's the bottom line, we could not do our work without your support. We remain committed to protecting your religious and constitutional freedoms. That remains our top priority, especially now during these challenging times. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side.

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It's called Mission Life. It will show you how you are personally impacting the pro-life battle through your support. And the publication includes a look at all major ACLJ pro-life cases, how we're fighting for the rights of pro-life activists, the ramifications of Roe v. Wade 40 years later, play on parenthood's role in the abortion industry, and what Obamacare means to the pro-life movement. Discover the many ways your membership with the ACLJ is empowering the right to life.

Request your free copy of Mission Life today online at ACLJ.org slash gift. Welcome back to Jay Sekio Live. We are taking your phone calls at 1-800-684-3110 and ask people to call in specifically from the states here, the key battleground states. We've got those calls in.

I want to start, I want to go right back to them. Trisha's calling from Ohio online for Ohio also has been an important state for Republicans because they've turned Ohio into a state that kind of barely went into a much more red state. The question is does it stay red this cycle? Trisha, welcome to Jay Sekio Live. You're on the air. Hi, Jordan.

I would say definitely kind of stay red. What part of Ohio are you in, Trisha? I'm in Urbana.

I travel from Columbus to Dayton. It's a good 50-mile radius that I drive and all I see is Trump signs. I've seen, in my town, we've got fun in a small town, but between here and Springfield, Ohio, all I see is Trump. I've seen three Biden signs.

That's interesting. Yeah, so there, I think you're starting to see that where people in states where you've got the campaigns more heavily focused, they're more open to putting out the sign, put out the bumper sticker, and you see this enthusiasm. But here was, again, this is the Real Clear Politics average, this is the poll of polls, and here's what it said. They have it right now Biden up.6. Last time, four years ago, they had President Trump up.6.

So they were basically, so basically you're even. That's all margin of error. And then the President ended up winning it by 8.1. Yeah. Bigger victory there than Georgia. Yeah. So West is here and West is in Georgia.

That's what I'm talking about. This Midwestern Rust Belt that Dan and I keep talking about is stronger than even the red deep south has been for Republicans right now, I think. And I think it maintains that because Donald Trump tapped into the blue collar, the real blue collar labor vote.

The labor unions might endorse Biden, but the actual members of the labor union are voting Republican more and more. You just came back from Georgia. So what's your, you were just down there.

What's your field report? I tell you what, you know, it's amazing because I know Georgia, they say is a close call and it's a battleground state, but everywhere you go, you see nothing but Trump signs and Trump parades. And I was in Florida, Fort Myers for the last week, Trump flotillas riding around Fort Myers beach and Fort Myers, Florida, and then to various Florida saw nothing but Trump signs everywhere. And you know, it makes you wonder because four years ago, you know, everyone said Trump was going to lose. The polls were really, really, really wrong. And it gives you doubt about the polls. Even now, I don't think we can take anything for granted. But on the other hand, it seems like there is a wave in Georgia, where I live, which is 30 miles, you know, from south of the Atlanta airport is all Trump country.

Totally. I know the state is close. I think your big metropolitan areas like Savannah, Atlanta, perhaps it's different there, but when you get outside of the beltway in Atlanta, and it is seems to be in, it's only anecdotal, but it seems to be there's tremendous support for the President.

We lived in Atlanta a long time. I mean, but it was not that, I remember when it was Democrat too. I mean, it's, you know, it's been kind of like the blue dog Democrats, the old conservative Southern Democrats, but, but so Than, and I want Than and Jordan to really expound on this, then take another call, but let's Than, this Rust Belt strategy, what happens in the Rust Belt? Well, the Rust Belt is the most important region in the country, quite frankly.

And I don't say that to the dismissal of the other states. I mean, obviously Florida is going to be very key. North Carolina is going to be key and others, but, but Donald Trump won election to the White House because of his sweeping, essentially the Rust Belt.

Some people would throw Minnesota in there, but I see the Rust Belt as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. You just went through some of the numbers in Ohio. I mean, eight points in Ohio, and Jordan can speak to this, that is a crushing victory in Ohio. Now the other three states were much closer inside of a percentage point, but I still say the burden of proof, the obligation to flip a state is on the challenger. When you have a state that is conditioned to supporting a candidate of either side, especially in these battleground states, Jay, it is always difficult to take that away. You basically have to go in and either find new voters, and Jordan went through some of these numbers yesterday, Republicans have actually found more new voters this time around, or Jay, you have to take voters away who are already conditioned to vote for the other candidate. That is a very difficult thing to do. So if you look at Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, in my view, that's the whole ballgame for Joe Biden.

If he can't win at least two of those states, it's lights out for him. All right, let's go right to the phones. 1-800-684-3110, people have been holding on, and we're just going into order. So Patty in Ohio on Line 6.

Patty, welcome to Jay Sekio Live. Thank you. God bless you guys for all that you do. Yeah, I'm in Medina County, which is Moore World.

We're about 40 miles, 40 minutes south of Cleveland. Medina County has been doing all these Trump parades. It is overwhelmingly just, it's emotional. You drive down the road with your flags and people on the side of the road waving their flags and yelling Trump and all of that, and I see a lot of what I call closet Trumpers. My son is 37 years old, and he has, to put it bluntly, hated Trump.

And in the last six or eight months, he's slowly turned around, and now he's very vocal for him. And this election, too, I think President Trump has just brought in such patriotism that we've never seen before. I've never hung a flag up on my house, you know, and everywhere. I also have a Trump 2020 sign, one of those flags that goes in the window of your car and flutters around.

And I get comments on it every day. I drive through McDonald's, and I'm amazed at the 18, 20-year-old kids who go, man, I like your flag. Yeah, I'll tell you, same thing happened to me, Patty. This is right, it's like you said, you've never even done this before. So it's caused you to different behavior politically. Not wrong behavior, I'm just saying, you know, you've never had, you never were the person that put a flag. You ever felt so passionately about a politician or a political candidate that you need to feel, that you felt like you really needed to kind of campaign for them and to help their campaign. Same thing happened to me, I put the Trump sticker on my car a couple weeks ago, and it was actually a police officer pulled up next to me, I won't say where or what district. Police officer pulled up, rolled down their window, and just said, it wasn't like, I thought maybe a light is out of my car, like they weren't pulling me over or anything, the lights weren't on. But you always get a little nervous if the police officer is pulling down their window and you notice, and the police officer just said, I love your bumper sticker, we can't put it on our patrol cars.

So for every one person that puts that sticker out there, and she's right, you get about 25 plus people, it feels like a week, telling you how much they love the fact that you've done that, that you've taken that action. I look at this poll of polls that our team put together and the analysis they put together, I look at it and it tells me, Than, that we're going to see a repeat of 2016. That's what it looks like to me, with maybe an outlier being this Georgia thing, but I still don't think so.

Because it's not like the President won Georgia by 20%, he won by five, so maybe this time it's three. But that's what it's starting to look like. To me, it looks like that we're getting ready for a repeat of 2016. Georgia is certainly competitive.

It looks like 2016. The one caveat I would give to it, and we've given it before, but for those states that we talked about, we're inside of a point. So you're talking about a very minimal shift that would be required to flip those states and to change the outcome of the election.

So you certainly don't take anything for granted. But you're right, Jay, the numbers certainly look like 2016. And I would also maybe add one layer to that silent majority conversation. I don't think it's always just people who are afraid, necessarily. It's people who were undecided until late in the game, or maybe were conflicted until the end.

But at the end of the day, if they go into the ballot box and they pull the lever for either candidate, quite frankly, that vote counts just as much as the person who has that bumper sticker or who has that flag. And I think that segment of the electorate this time, Jay, I actually think that segment's pretty large as well. All right, let's grab another call. Let's go into Pennsylvania. Patrick in Pennsylvania online too. Hey, Patrick, welcome to Jay Sekio Live.

Hello. So in Pennsylvania, I live in Pittsburgh, and we have, within the city, there's, you get some Biden signs. I live a little bit out of the city. And if you put Trump signs out, they're more likely to get taken. But if you look at the stores, the bakeries sell Trump and Biden cookies. There are thousands of Trump cookies that are purchased out of these bakeries, and very few Biden.

And the stores that you go to, there's Trump paraphernalia everywhere, and there's nothing Biden. And if there is, it's one thing. So we win the cookie poll. That's very good. We win, Patrick.

Yeah, the local bakeries. I mean, there is this whole thing. I mean, when you see entire businesses set up around a political candidate, who I think is, again, he supersedes, whereas Joe Biden is not bigger than the Democrat party. The Democrat party is way more in control than Joe Biden is. Donald Trump is bigger than the Republican party. His brand is bigger.

He is bigger. He's taking the party at different directions. Does that mean that if he doesn't win, that the Republican party's not there anymore?

No. I mean, it's just, for now, it's not like people are buying... They're not buying Republican signs, then.

They're buying Trump signs. And that's why I think, as someone who is conservative, when you add Republicans to the people who are buying Trump signs, who would not necessarily consider themselves Republicans in any poll, that's when you start seeing these victories occur. It's a great point, Jordan, because I actually think this is probably the Presidential election cycle that has the least overlap between party affiliation and then candidate affiliation. Jordan, I actually think there's a number of states, maybe we can get into this in a later day, where you might have them go for one party at the Presidential ticket and the other party on the Senate ticket.

I think there's gonna be more than one of those states, Jordan. Yeah, which I think underscores that point, that people don't see necessarily a vote for President Trump. It's just a vote in mass for every Republican or all Republican policies or the Republican Party, because he is bigger than that, like him or not.

That's just a true statement. And the stores and the whole economy that's been built around him, the flotillas, etc. I mean, that just explained, they're not Republican parades. They're Trump parades. They're Trump flotillas. They're not Republican flotillas.

We'll be back on JCKO Live. Only when a society can agree that the most vulnerable and voiceless deserve to be protected is there any hope for that culture to survive. And that's exactly what you are saying when you stand with the American Center for Law and Justice to defend the right to life. We've created a free, powerful publication offering a panoramic view of the ACLJ's battle for the unborn.

It's called Mission Life. It will show you how you are personally impacting the pro-life battle through your support. And the publication includes a look at all major ACLJ pro-life cases, how we're fighting for the rights of pro-life activists, the ramifications of Roe v. Wade 40 years later, play on parenthood's role in the abortion industry, and what Obamacare means to the pro-life movement. Discover the many ways your membership with the ACLJ is empowering the right to life.

Request your free copy of Mission Life today online at ACLJ.org slash gift. The challenges facing Americans are substantial. At a time when our values, our freedoms, our constitutional rights are under attack, it's more important than ever to stand with the American Center for Law and Justice. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines protecting your freedoms, defending your rights, in courts, in Congress, and in the public arena. And we have an exceptional track record of success.

But here's the bottom line. We could not do our work without your support. We remain committed to protecting your religious and constitutional freedoms.

That remains our top priority, especially now during these challenging times. The American Center for Law and Justice is on your side. If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well, this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org, where you can learn more about our life changing work. Become a member today.

ACLJ.org. All right, welcome back to JCEC Hill Live. So again, a lot of people have called it. We've got the key battleground states calling in Minnesota, Ohio. We'll get to all of them.

Yeah, we're going to get to all the calls. I've got one question though. This debate was supposed to be about foreign policy. Yeah.

Okay. And then you look at the way that they've laid out the topics and it's barely foreign policy. Wes, and you said the foreign policy differentials, just take a minute on this, are significant.

They are very significant. The thing that most Americans are concerned about are the economy and foreign policy and the whole foreign policy issue. The biggest challenge that any President will face in the next term is how to deal with China, Russia, and the Middle East. And already some of the rhetoric that Joe Biden is using, you know, gives people serious doubts about it. For example, the Iran arms embargo expired last Sunday, which means now Iran will be able to buy tanks, aircraft weapons, what have you.

The United States, the Trump administration says, we're going to keep it in place, not only not selling them weapons, but we will target any corporation or country that tries to sell them weapons. Meanwhile, what does Joe Biden say? He's going to resign the Iran nuclear deal, the JCPOA. He also says he's somehow going to hold Iran in check.

That just doesn't pass the believability test. And with the Iran arms embargo expiring Sunday, this issue is in the front of a lot of thinking people. It'll be interesting if it's in front of the debate moderator when the debate, it will not be, it will not be. All right, let's go take some calls, Jordan. Yeah, back to the phones as we go. Let's go to Lance in Minnesota on Line 1. Lance, welcome to JCPOA Live. So this, obviously you are in a state again, which is, it's heavily contested with both sides.

What do you see on the ground? Hey, thanks for taking my call. I just want to let you guys know that I'm a member of Magna Sota. We're a grassroots organization and I do door knocking. And every time that we talk to somebody that that is going to vote for Trump or whatnot, they always tell us that they're afraid to tell people that who they're going to vote for. So the fear is out there. Now I have four bumper stickers on my car. I own a townhouse, so I'm a member of a homeowners association and they have a rule in their association rules that we can't post political signs or anything like that in our yards. Well, the Supreme Court had deemed that, those signs, as freedom of speech.

So they violated the freedom of speech. So I fought that. So I have three yard signs in my yard. I have a flag. How is it in your community generally? I mean, you said that when you go to people, they're still saying they're afraid to acknowledge that they're in favor of the President, which was what happened last time. How did your county go last time? How did the vote go in the county? Did your precinct in county carry for the President or not? Yeah, my county was red, but you know, Minnesota is a huge Democrat state.

I mean, blue collar state. So, but I'm honestly, guys, just real quick story. Just this past weekend, I was at an antique. I like to go antiquing. I was at an antique store and the lady that owns the store, she was a very elderly lady. And I have a Trump mask, a Trump 2020 mask that I wear. And she just leaned over and whispered in my ear. She said, we are the silent majority. Well, if it's the whisper campaign carries it, I think that'll carry the day.

Thanks for calling in. Yeah. I mean, Clinton only won Minnesota by a percent and a half. So this is one of those states where I think that like, it's a little bit like a Georgia for Republicans that is for Democrats. Like if they're losing Minnesota, or it's even close like that, then it's like a landslide the other way. Because that's where you get kind of like to the end of the Rust Belt, where you get a lot more liberal. It's not just a blue collar. It's not just like Michigan.

It's a lot more of a liberal, I'd say liberal white vote that you've got to lead there, which is different than you're dealing with in some of those other states throughout the Midwest. Back to the phones we got. Let's keep going.

And people have been online. Sherry's in Ohio online. Sherry, what part of Ohio are you calling in from? I am on the northwest of Ohio, a little town called Anna, south of Lima and north of Dayton.

Okay. And our area seems to be very much most of the signs that you see will be Trump, Trump, Trump. Once in a while, you'll see a Biden down in our area.

And I know it depends like Toledo is a very Democrat. I went up to Toledo and I have my bumper sticker on and I have my Trump mask. And I thought, oh my gosh, because it's so Democrat up there. I mean, I even saw signs that said, don't Trump. And I just thought, well, I'm here.

You know, the Lord drew is going to have to keep me safe, but it worked good. And so, but our area here, mostly what you're seeing are Trump signs. Yeah. And this is again, these are the folks that they may have, I don't know how they voted in the past. They may have sometimes voted Republican, sometimes Democrat.

They were not putting out these kinds of signage. Like that's what there's, even in a state like Ohio battleground, it wasn't like you went out 30 minutes outside of a city and every farm you drove by or every large piece of property had a political side in it. And that's what's happening now.

That's different. I think that the polls can't figure that out. You cannot figure out the movement that is behind. And what I would say is that like if it was Obama on the other side of the ticket, you might be able to combat that because you have a movement. When you have no movement, no one cares about Joe Biden winning or losing. I don't think any Democrats will feel bad for him. If he loses, they will feel bad for themselves, but they won't care. They don't actually care about Joe Biden. That's why I think the Hunter, they don't care.

They just don't care. He's just a vessel. Whereas Donald Trump, Donald Trump, he's changed where Republican politics are to populism. That's why the Hunter Biden thing really probably doesn't change the percentages. Because no one's voting for him because of who he is. That's probably the issue is he could be the most corrupt guy on earth. The only reason they're, if they're only going to vote for him because he happens to be a Democrat or he's not Donald Trump and no one's been able to win an election off that yet. This would be the first time. Well and his evasiveness and sort of hiding out and not really taking very many questions and not answering the questions when he's asked does not help either. That does not inspire people.

And so yeah, there's not a lot of momentum in his favor. Let's take this one for fans. Let's take Judy. Judy in Illinois on live four. Judy, welcome to JCQ live. All right then, get ready. Yes.

Hi, thank you. Um, I know that Illinois is not a key battleground, but I want the rest of the country to know that, um, outside of the Chicago area, Illinois is for Trump. In the 2016 election, only five counties outside of the Chicago area voted Democratic. The rest of us are pro-Trump.

All right. Well, fan is an Illinois native. So, uh, Judy I'm from Tazewell County down by Peoria. You're exactly right. Once you leave the Chicago area, it is virtually entirely red. Now when you're talking about statewide elections, which obviously Presidential elections are, uh, it does tend to be pretty deep blue. It's won by 16 points by Hillary Clinton.

Uh, but if you're talking about congressional races, uh, certainly most of the state's delegation outside of Chicago, uh, would be deep red. So yeah, go farm country, Illinois. All right, let's take the last call. They shared in Minnesota online five. Hey Sharon. Hey, hi Jordan and Jay.

Um, just really quick cause I know you're at the top of the hour. Um, for Minnesota, I live in the St Paul area, um, downtown Minneapolis, downtown Duluth areas, which is in, um, central Minnesota. It's for Biden, but everywhere else that we've gone, it's all been for Trump and it is kind of scared to put up a sign because uh, late September we had someone have their, uh, garage burned down because they had a Trump sign on it. Yeah, I think that again, you're in a, you're in a real battleground. Minnesota would be as like a firewall state for Democrats if they, if Minnesota falls, which it almost did in 2016. Uh, and, and I feel like the party has not done a full reckoning yet from that election. And they're thinking that, you know, if they win this one, maybe they don't, but it's like if you start, if you lose the Minnesota as Democrats, the fact that we could even talk about that as a potential, then you have to re you have to look at your entire party where it is. And uh, and I think that's, that's, this is a real look at where the race is. Very close, right on the margins and not what, what you're seeing these headlines about landslides for anybody right on the margins. It's who shows up to vote will win.

It's anybody's ball game still. There's still enough votes out there that either, either candidate can win. Who's going to show up from now until election day. For decades now, the ACLJ has been on the front lines, protecting your freedoms, defending your rights in courts, in Congress and in the public arena. The American center for law and justice is on your side. If you're already a member, thank you. And if you're not, well, this is the perfect time to stand with us at ACLJ.org where you can learn more about our life changing work. Become a member today. ACLJ.org.